The India Met Department (IMD) has declared the formation of tropical cyclone 'Kyarr' over the East-Central Arabian Sea and has immediately put it under watch for intensification as a severe cyclonic storm by tomorrow (Saturday).
The persisting well-marked low-pressure area started earning its spurs last (Thursday) night and intensified twice over to become a deep depression.
Its upgradation as a deep depression was a formality given that it had developed ample traction in a supportive environment, before being declared as a cyclone this (Friday) morning.
At 5.30 am this (Friday) morning, 'Kyarr' was located 240 km West-South-West of Ratnagiri (Maharashtra), 380 km South-South-West of Mumbai, and 1,850 km East-South-East of Salalah (Oman).
'Kyarr' may move West-North-West towards the Oman coast during the next five days. In the process, it could intensify into a severe cyclone by tomorrow (Saturday) and a very severe cyclone later in the evening.
Squally winds with speeds reaching up to 60 km/hr and gusting to 70 km/hr may prevail along and off the Maharashtra and Goa coast until tomorrow (Saturday), and decrease thereafter.
Squally winds with speeds reaching up to 50 km/hr and gusting to 60 km/hr, may prevail along and off the North Karnataka coast and the North-East Arabian Sea, off the Gujarat coast during this period.
The IMD has forecast light to moderate rainfall at most places over the coastal districts of Karnataka, Goa and South Konkan until tomorrow (Saturday), with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places and isolated heavy rainfall over North Konkan.
Gale winds with speeds reaching up to 75 km/hr and gusting to 85 km/hr prevail around the cyclone system centred over the East-Central Arabian Sea.
These are likely to upgrade gradually to 90-100 km/hr, gusting to 110 km/hr by Saturday morning, and 170-180 km/hr, gusting to 200 km/hr by Sunday evening over the East-Central and adjoining West-Central Arabian Sea, around the system centre.
The sea condition is likely to be 'high' to 'very high' (wave heights of 30- to 46 ft) over the East-Central Arabian Sea around the system centre and 'very rough' to 'high' (20- to 30 ft) along and off the Maharashtra and Goa coasts, and 'rough' to 'very rough' (eight ft to 20 ft) along and off the North Karnataka coast until tomorrow (Saturday).
They are likely to become 'phenomenal' (46 ft and above) around the system centre over the East-Central and adjoining West-Central Arabian Sea on Saturday evening.
The sea conditions are also likely to be 'rough' to 'very rough' (13- to 20 ft) over the East-Central Arabian Sea, off the North Karnataka coast and over the North-East Arabian Sea, off South Gujarat until Saturday.
The IMD has advised fishermen not to venture into the East-Central Arabian Sea during the next three days. They should not venture out along and off the Maharashtra-Goa-Karnataka coasts and the North-East Arabian Sea and the adjoining South Gujarat coast until Saturday.
US agency outlook
In its update at 9.30 am, the US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre said cyclone 'Kyarr' is steadily developing (amassing of clouds to build the storm tower) in a dense, overcast environment.
The underlying low-level circulation centre (the core of the system) was quasi-stationary, allowing it ample time and space (given the distance it is expected to travel towards Oman) to build the storm tower.
Exceptionally congenial environmental conditions -- low vertical wind shear and warm sea waters ranging between 29 deg Celsius and 30 deg Celsius -- have made its task even easier.
The vertical wind shear represents the rate at which winds change speed and direction, which should be suitably lower - as they are in the instant case - to allow the storm to build.
Warm sea waters aid the process of convection (or the process of cloud-building) and generation of moisture, which fuel its growth in strength and intensity.
The system may remain quasi-stationary during the rest of today (Friday), before slowly turning away from India's coast to the North-West and later West-North-West (generally, out, into the open waters).
But JTWC cited some global models which favour a track towards 'extreme North India', but ruled that out given the presence of an opposing high-pressure area, with clockwise winds over the North Arabian Sea.
The high-pressure (or ridge) repels any storm approaching from its South, the JTWC notes. It sees a more plausible track to the West-South-West, towards Oman-Yemen.
A clearer picture would emerge over the next three to four days, during which the cyclone is expected to take baby steps, before finally charting a course for landfall.