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India Met Department is expecting a low-pressure area to pop up over Andaman Sea during the next 24 hours to announce the arrival of the northeast monsoon, 2014.
In tandem, the withdrawal process of the southwest monsoon from land has acquired a sense of urgency this morning as it braces to cover peninsular India.
WIND PROFILE
The southwest monsoon has to retire fully from land before the Met can declare the onset of successor northeast monsoon over the peninsula.
Both are expected to happen simultaneously, given the build-up of conditions over the Andaman Sea and the Bay of Bengal.
Profile of wind pattern projected by the Met shows the ‘low’ spinning up and prospering in an environment of easterly flows from the Gulf of Thailand into the southeast Bay.
It has joined peer international models to project the formation of a tropical cyclone (to be called 'Hudhud'), the first of the season, which may approach the Andhra Pradesh coast by October 12.
SAME CREDENTIALS
The build-up is similar to that of Super Cyclone Phailin that hit the same coast last year and tracked the same direction after having taken birth in the same location.
But the storm is not likely to grow to as much strength, according to the international models. A couple of them are of the view that a severe cyclonic storm could be expected this time round.
The European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts said it is likely that the storm could grow into a cyclone of minimal strength only.
India Met Department however seems to project a system of significant strength, a reading based on today’s meteorological parameters which, however, keep changing on a daily basis.
IDEAL CONDITIONS
The period of monsoon transition from southwest to northeast in October is otherwise even known to create ideal conditions for cyclones to take shape in the Bay of Bengal.
Twin Pacific typhoons Phanfone and successor Vongfong have surfed up the northwest Pacific basin and ‘excited’ the neighbouring South China Sea.
Phanfone has hit Japan, and Vongfong appears to follow a similar track, which is farther and away from South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal.
Southeasterly to easterly flows associated with these storms and warming up of the South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal ensured ideal conditions for storm development are created in these basins.
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