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Depression materialises in the Bay, set to become a cyclone

Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram | Updated on March 12, 2018 Published on October 07, 2014

Satellite image taken on October 7, 2014.   -  Source: IMD

The well-marked low-pressure area over north Andaman Sea has concentrated into a monsoon depression this afternoon, an India Met Department update said.

It will move in west-northwesterly direction and further intensify into a deep depression by tomorrow (Wednesday) and thereafter as a tropical cyclone.

TROPICAL CYCLONE

It will cross the Andaman and Nicobar Islands tomorrow and set itself on a course for the Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coasts as a tropical cyclone.

It will have enough time and space to ramp up into a severe or even a very severe cyclone, according to a few international models.

The US Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Centre upgraded to ‘medium’ the possibility of a ‘significant tropical cyclone’ spinning up in the Bay in the next 24 hours.

Over the mainland, isolated heavy rainfall is forecast for the rest of the day over south interior Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry.

Weather over Andaman and Nicobar Islands may deteriorate tomorrow with the expected crossing of the cyclonic storm.

HIGH WINDS, HEAVY RAIN

Gale-force winds have been forecast reaching 70- to 80 km/hr, and fishermen have been directed not to venture out into the sea.

Isolated heavy rainfall would continue to lash south interior Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

Squally weather has been forecast for the Nicobar Islands on Thursday as the cyclonic storm steps out into the open Bay of Bengal towards the east coast of mainland India.

Meanwhile, southern and southwestern Myanmar (especially the Ayerawaddy river mouth) also may get lashed by strong winds and heavy rainfall during this phase.

The cyclone, to be named ‘Hudhud’ (contributed by Oman) as per protocol, is now expected to cross mostly the Odisha coast by the weekend, suggests a Met outlook.

A few international models indicate that the system might take a more southerly track towards north coastal Andhra Pradesh.

STRONG CYCLONE?

For instance, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The Centre seems to have lately shed its inhibitions about the extent to which the storm might strengthen.

It sees a strong to very strong system (severe to very severe cyclone) impacting the Andhra Pradesh coast by Saturday.

Back home, the Met sees the southerly-to-southeasterlies wrapping into the Bay system bringing heavy rain initially to Gangetic West Bengal and Odisha coasts from the weekend.

The building cyclone would be the first ahead of the onset of the northeast monsoon, which is likely to be declared along the time of, or shortly after, the landfall.

As if on cue, the withdrawal of incumbent southwest monsoon is gathering pace over mainland India as the peninsula gets covered during the next few days.

It is already knocking at the doors of the peninsula, having reached Hoshangabad, Malegaon and Dahanu this afternoon.

Published on October 07, 2014

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