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India Met Department (IMD) has put out a watch for a monsoon depression in the Arabian Sea and a low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal as North-East monsoon prepares to enter a virulent phase.
The persisting 'low' over East-Central Arabian Sea and an associated cyclonic circulation are set to become 'well marked' later today (Monday) in the first round and intensify into a depression tomorrow (Tuesday).
Read the Met department forecast here
ONWARD TRACK
The depression may initially move North-North-Eastwards in the direction of the Konkan-Mumbai coast till Thursday and then recurve West-North-West towards Oman-Yemen coasts with gradual intensification.
The initial East-North-East movement is likely being prompted by the movement of a batch of western disturbances over Afghanistan-Pakistan into North-West India over the next few days.
Meanwhile, as expected, the North-East monsoon would toss up a 'low' to the other side of the peninsula in the Bay of Bengal off the North Tamil Nadu and South Andhra Pradesh coasts by around Wednesday.
Credit: IMD website
The two systems on either side of the peninsula would see the twin-engined North-East monsoon to put itself into top gear delivering heavy to very heavy rains over many parts of Peninsular India.
The Met ha already forecast fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls likely over the region during the next three to four days.
Heavy to very heavy rainfall likely over Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry during the next three days and over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Coastal and North Interior Karnataka during the subsequent two days.
WESTERN DISTURBANCES
Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning may roam many parts of the South Peninsula and Maharashtra during the next two days, threatening cloud-to-ground strikes.
At least two troughs and cyclonic circulations are acting in concert with the 'low' over the East-Central Arabian Sea to preside over the day's proceedings on Monday and spread out the rainfall.
A trough runs across from the 'low' all the way to Vidarbha across North Interior Karnataka and Telangana, piping in the moisture swept from the Arabian Sea.
A separate cyclonic circulation lurks in the nearby Comorin area and neighbourhood, and also contributes its own mite to both the 'low' and the in-bound trough, raising the intensity of the rains.
A separate trough is running down from this circulation to north Coastal Andhra Pradesh across Tamil Nadu, thus completing the matrix of the atmospheric features.
To the North, a western disturbance lies in the form of a cyclonic circulation over Jammu & Kashmir, even as a fresh western disturbance is likely to affect the hills of North-West India from tomorrow (Tuesday).
In fact, passing of these western disturbances to the East is what could likely cause the 'low' over East-Central Arabian Sea just to the South, to head East-North-East initially (towards the West Coast).
HEAVY RAIN FORECAST
Cyclonic circulations are also in place over East Uttar Pradesh as well as over East Assam, sitting in judgment over the localised weather pattern.
An IMD outlook for today and tomorrow (Monday and Tuesday) said that heavy to very heavy rainfall may lash Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Kerala while it wold be heavy over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Rayalaseema, Karnataka and Lakshadweep.
Thunderstorms accompanied with lightning may roll out over Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Konkan, Goa, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Rayalaseema, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Kerala.
Squally weather (wind speeds reaching up to 55 km/hr) is forecast East-Central and South-East Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep; South-West Bay of Bengal and adjoining Comorin; as well as the Maharashtra- Karnataka-Kerala coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas.
An extended forecast from October 26 to 28 (Saturday to Monday next) said that fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with heavy falls may wallop over Peninsular India and East India. Isolated to scattered rainfall is likely over the hills of North-West India and North-East India.
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