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The north and north-western parts of the country have come under the influence of a weather-making western disturbance indicating a likely light to moderate or scattered to fairly widespread rainfall/snowfall over the regions.
The pattern could likely hold though with intermissions for the next week as well since a follow-up western disturbance is forecast to cross in across the Pakistan border to dictate weather from the weekend.
Not as widespread
This is in line with the pattern of rain and thundershowers witnessed over many parts of North, Central and South India during the week ending February 14, though likely not as widespread this time round.
To put it in perspective, the rain amounts received were in excess by a large margin over the seasonal normal at many places, with Coastal Karnataka (+1,634 per cent) and Vidarbha (+1,032 per cent) topping the charts.
Other notable gainers (in percentage figures) are: Marathawada (+669); South Interior Karnataka (+610); North Interior Karnataka (+608); East Madhya Pradesh (+417); Rayalaseema (+414); Kerala (+360); Chhattisgarh (+344); Tamil Nadu & Puducherry (+326); Jammu & Kashmir (+98); West Madhya Pradesh (+89); and Telangana (+44).
The rains had materialised as a ‘well-endowed’ western disturbance with its underbelly being lowered into Central Arabian Sea and to the South of Vindhyas to interact with opposing winds, dumping moisture in the form of rain, snow or hailstorm.
Western disturbances
In comparison, forecasts do not indicate approach of a western disturbance of similar intensity and scale; if anything, the one currently in action could turn out to be the strongest of the lot for the rest of the month.
Meanwhile, the South Peninsula would need to wait until early next week for any organised rain activity, as per extended forecasts put out by the India Met Department.
The US National Centre for Environmental Prediction seems to agree, suggesting that Sri Lanka and adjoining Tamil Nadu, South Karnataka and Kerala would witness rain activity during February 20 to 28.
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