India will receive above-normal rainfall in July under the influence of the South-West monsoon. The above-normal prediction comes in the wake of the country receiving 109 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) rainfall in June.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its forecast for July on Monday that India will receive over 106 per cent of the LPA rainfall. July, being the wettest month of the June-September monsoon season, has an LPA of 280.4 mm.

Addressing the media, IMD’s Director-General M. Mohapatra said that some areas of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Uttarakhand, and Haryana may receive very heavy rainfall in July, leading to urban flooding. He suggested close monitoring of rivers and reservoirs, particularly in these States, and timely advance release of water to minimise damage.

Another break

The IMD chief also stated that there could be a hiatus of about 10 days from July 5 to 15, during which the monsoon progress may be stalled.

Pointing out that June had 13 low-pressure systems (LPS) compared with the normal 2.8 for the month, he said though the number of LPS in July may be around normal 5, the number of rainy days due to it may be higher this time. He also suggested all government machinery take special care when IMD has been predicting high-intensity LPS, and these days, the forecast is also issued much in advance.

“Compared to monthly forecast, the medium-range forecast (for two weeks) has higher accuracy level and those should be monitored seriously,” Mohapatra observed. He attributed the unusually high number of LPS as a major reason for the overall June rainfall matching the prediction despite the first half receiving 31 per cent deficient rainfall.

According to IMD’s own models, ENSO neutral conditions are expected to prevail at least until January 2026, which is the same as most global models are predicting now. When ENSO conditions turn negative, it is termed El Nino, which adversely affects monsoon rainfall in a normal year.

Published on June 30, 2025