Agri Business

June ends up with above-normal rainfall at 18 per cent

Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram | Updated on June 30, 2020 Published on June 30, 2020

File photo of rain

Prognosis good for first two weeks of July

The month of June has generated 18 per cent above normal rainfall for the country — up to 13 per cent lower than the figure midway due to an intervening lean patch over Central as well as North-West India.

This is despite the fact the monsoon this year covered the entire landscape 12 days ahead of normal date.

Although a case of spreading itself too thin and too fast, it left behind among best June figures on show. A cyclone named Nisarga during the onset phase only did its bidding by keeping itself close to the West Coast. Normally, cyclones forming during this phase spin away from India, taking the rains with them.

On the last day of June, as many as 30 meteorological subdivisions out of 36 have received normal to large excess rainfall. Those on the deficit side are: Lakshadweep (-20 per cent); Saurashtra & Kutch (-24 per cent); Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh (-35 per cent); Himachal Pradesh (-31 per cent); West Uttar Pradesh (-32 per cent); and Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura (-35 per cent).

TN, Uttarakhand scrape through

Tamil Nadu (-17 per cent) and Uttarakhand (-18 per cent) have managed to get into the normal category, thanks to the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) specific classification norms (-19 per cent to +19 per cent is considered as normal extent of variation from the median).

The rain-generating Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave is currently weak over West Indian Ocean (to the South of the Arabian Sea), but it could strengthen in the coming week, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Even ahead of this, clouds have massed up along the West Coast on Monday, per available satellite pictures.

The MJO is an eastward moving ‘pulse’ of cloud and rainfall near the Equator moving across the Indian Ocean periodically. The Australian Bureau cited climate models to indicate that the wave may strengthen near Africa or the West Indian Ocean next week, and then track slowly eastwards.

Good augury for monsoon

This is a good augury for the monsoon during the first two weeks of July, the rainiest monsoon month. The IMD said that widespread rainfall may continue along the West Coast during the next five days. Isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely also over Konkan and Goa; isolated heavy over Coastal Karnataka during the next three days and isolated heavy to very heavy thereafter; and heavy falls over Kerala during the next five days.

Extended range model guidance from the IMD indicates that the current week till July 2 would witness above normal rainfall over most of Peninsular India. But below normal rain is signalled for Central and North-West India, and a surplus for East and North-East. But the rainfall distribution and intensity may increase over North-West India after next three days.

Extended range model outlook

Almost a similar forecast is valid for July 3-9 though the heavy to very heavy precipitation over East and North-East relents and extends a limb to East-Central India (Odisha, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and South Coastal Tamil Nadu). The rest of Tamil Nadu is forecast to witness largely normal rainfall during this period.

The fortnight from July 10 to 23 may bring normal rainfall to North-West India and retain a similar over Peninsular India, though above normal rain is indicated for both Coastal Andhra Pradesh to the eastern side of the peninsula, and Coastal Karnataka-Goa-Konkan stretch on the West Coast.

Central India is projected to fall consistently under a below-normal rainfall regime during this period, which can be explained away by the all-quiet over the Bay of Bengal side. Monsoon, as of Tuesday, was strong to moderate in the Bay, an update from the Myanmar national forecaster said.

Monsoon trough formation

The IMD said that the western end of the crucial monsoon trough over North India has reverted to back to the normal position. But its eastern end continues to languish over land over Imphal. Ideally, it should dip into the Bay of Bengal for firing up the monsoon. This happens once a low-pressure area forms in the Bay, the watch for which has been mounted by the Myanmar forecaster.

Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is likely over Central and adjoining East India during the next three days and increase in intensity and distribution thereafter. Isolated heavy falls may lash Madhya Pradesh during the next three days and isolated heavy to very heavy falls thereafter.

Isolated heavy falls is forecast over Chhattisgarh during the next five days; over Bihar and Vidarbha for four days from Wednesday; and heavy to very heavy over Odisha from Thursday to Saturday.

Published on June 30, 2020
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