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The weak phase of the monsoon during the week starting June 13 has dented the overall performance from a surplus 19 per cent to a deficit of 7 per cent as on June 20.
The deficit during the week was worst over Central India (-72 per cent) where the monsoon was due by June 15 as per normal schedule.
The shortfall in the South Peninsula was -26 per cent, but it is still at an overall surplus of +36 per cent as of June 20.
Change in fortunes
From Sunday a turnaround in the monsoon is in the offing after an ‘active phase’ of monsoon-friendly Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) establishes over the Indian Ocean.
This process is on and will be followed by the development of helpful cyclonic circulations over East India and the strengthening of monsoon easterly winds from the Bay of Bengal.
Satellite pictures at 6 pm on Friday showed piloting thunderstorms lining up over Peninsular India. The most intense ones were over Nanded; Adilabad-Kinvat-Umarkhed-Nirmal-Kurnool; Hyderabad; and Munnar. These covered Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala.
This forced a number of flights in the domestic sector to stay clear of the thunderheads.
Heavy rain forecast
India Met Department (IMD) said that the monsoon may enter the remaining parts of Assam; more parts of Maharashtra; Chhattisgarh; Odisha; Bengal; and parts of Jharkhand, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh; and South Gujarat during Saturday to Monday.
From June 21 to 27 fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected along the West Coast; interior Maharashtra and Karnataka; North-East; hills of Bengal and Sikkim.
During the second half of the week, rainfall activity may escalate over the rest of East India and Chhattisgarh with fairly widespread to widespread rainfall and isolated heavy rainfall.
Isolated to scattered rainfall is forecast over the rest of the country outside West Rajasthan, where dry weather is likely.
Overall rainfall would be normal to above normal over the country during the week, except most parts of North-West, Central and adjoining East India and Arunachal Pradesh, where it is likely to be below normal.
However, the following week (June 28 to July 4), there may be an increase in rainfall over most parts of the country, the IMD said.
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