Monsoon on course in North India despite negative vibes from Pacific

Parts of coastal Karnataka and Kerala would join East and North-East India in getting lashed by heavy rain forecast for today under the influence of an existing low-pressure area and a brewing successor.

India Met Department (IMD) located the 'low' over East Uttar Pradesh while a preparatory circulation over South Bangladesh and adjoining plains of Bengal is now embedded into the monsoon trough.

This contrasts with the evolving scenario in the equatorial region of the Pacific, where a warming trend has been identified that does not augur well for the Indian monsoon system at large.

MORE RAIN FORECAST

The IMD has forecast fairly widespread rainfall to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Uttar Pradesh until tomorrow.

The westerly winds associated with the 'low' may shift further East to cause widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls over Bihar during the next two to three days.

The circulation over South Bangladesh and adjoining Bengal would also bring fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls over Bengal, Odisha and Jharkhand over next three days.

Widespread rain with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are also forecast for Assam & Meghalaya while it will be heavy over Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura during this period.

This completes the forecast scenario for the rain-deficit parts of East and North-East India while the ongoing widespread rains with scattered heavy falls may continue over Kerala for another day.

Water level at Idukki, the largest hydel reservoir in Kerala, is now at 2396.12 ft against a maximum of 2403 feet, with considerable decrease in the quantum of inflows.

This, combined with the generators running at full capacity, has reduced the inflows while the intermittent spells of showers in the catchment area are closely being monitored.

EMERGING PACIFIC SIGNALS

In this context, a meeting of the state cabinet yesterday assessed that it may not be necessary to open the shutters at the Cheruthoni spillway just yet, though this prospect is not being entirely ruled out.

This morning, water level at the Idamalayar dam to the North is at 548.58 ft against a maximum of 554.46 ft and at the Kakki dam (Pathanamthitta district) at 3216.10 ft against a maximum of 3220 ft.

This is the first time ever that most of the 78 dams in the state, both major and minor, have neared or are nearing capacity so early into the South-West monsoon.

AUGUST WILL DISAPPOINT

Meanwhile, private forecaster Skymet has put forward an emerging bleak scenario for the 2018 monsoon that has just crossed the half-way mark with an overall deficit of six per cent for the country.

According to it, the rainfall during August, normally the rainiest after July, is likely to disappoint with a discerning warming trend in the Equatorial Pacific likely signalling early stages of an El Nino. 

This could impact the monsoon prospects taking cues from the past, though there is no proven one-to-one relationship to link one with the other.

The IMD has not taken a call on the evolving scenario, though a top official has gone on record expressing 'discomfort' over the development in the Equatorial Pacific.            

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