Agri Business

Monsoon reaches Andamans amidst cyclone alert in Bay

Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram | Updated on January 27, 2018 Published on May 18, 2016

Satellite image taken on May 18, 2016 (13.00 IST)

The South-West monsoon has entered the Andaman region in the extreme south-east of Bay of Bengal, which is the first port of call for the seasonal rain system.

It should normally take 10-12 days for it to make its subsequent onset over Kerala around June 1, but this is being delayed until June 7 with a model of error of plus or minus four days.

Deep depression

The India Met Department declared the onset of the rainy season on Wednesday over entire South Andaman Sea, Nicobar Islands, and parts of South-East Bay of Bengal and North Andaman Sea.

This happened as a depression in the South-West Bay of Bengal intensified into a deep depression.

It is expected to further intensify as a cyclonic storm in the next 24 hours.

On Wednesday afternoon, the deep depression was located 170 km to the south-southeast of Nellore in Andhra Pradesh.

It would move north-northeastwards along and off the North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts when it would further intensify into a cyclone.

In this manner, the peninsular east coast of India will be spared of a direct hit by the cyclone, though it would have to contend with heavy to very heavy rain, high winds, and rough seas.

No direct hit

The Met does not yet indicate a track for the onward movement of the would-be cyclone. Global models point to an arc stretching from Gangetic West Bengal to Bangladesh to Myanmar as likely area of landfall.

The US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre proposes a scenario where the cyclone weakens over North Bay of Bengal as it comes under the influence of a passing western disturbance.

The weakened system would spend itself out in a muffled thud along the Bangladesh-Myanmar coast.

Heavy rain alert

In contrast, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts picks a strong cyclone racing away to make a precipitous landfall by Sunday over the Sunderbans in Gangetic West Bengal/Bangladesh.

On Thursday, heavy to very heavy rain has been forecast at isolated places in Coastal Andhra Pradesh, heavy over Odisha, the North-eastern States and Kerala as the cyclonic storm leaves the East Coast.

Squally winds speeding up to 70 km/hr and gusting to 80 km/hr have been warned off and along the coast of Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. Fishermen are advised not venture out to the sea off Odisha.

Meanwhile, heat wave to severe heat wave conditions are being reported in North-West India from Haryana, Chandigarh, Punjab, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha in Maharashtra. These conditions would persist into May 22, up till when forecasts are available.

Published on May 18, 2016
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