The belt of heavy rainfall associated with the monsoon has effectively shifted to the foothills of North India, triggering a sustained wet spell in the region and adjoining plains.

It delivered excess rainfall of 3 per cent for the country as a whole as on Monday. Among the four homogenous regions, East and North-East India alone feature a deficit (-18 per cent).

Surplus rain Elsewhere, it is in surplus over North-West India (+12 per cent); Central India (+16 per cent); and South Peninsula (+3 per cent).

The Met said in an update that the monsoon was ‘vigorous’ over Uttarakhand during the 24 hours ending on Monday morning.

It was only less virulent over Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, East Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, the hills of Gangetic West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh.

Parts of East India and the East Coast, including Tamil Nadu and Coastal Andhra Pradesh, may also benefit during the next few days in a pattern associated with a weak phase of the monsoon.

On the West Coast, moderate to heavy showers may lash Coastal Karnataka, Kerala and progressively Konkan-Goa during the next four-five days.

Drying phase A notable feature from July 16 to July 20 is the drying up of large parts of Central India, which have been receiving heavy to very heavy rain during the preceding five days.

Viewed from that aspect, the respite being heralded is welcome though there is a worry if it would last longer than what is considered ideal.

The Met projections depict a scenario where rains dry up from the West Coast and the dry phase over Central India extending to parts of the adjoining plains of North-West India.

Normal rains should return to Peninsular India, West Rajasthan, and Jammu and Kashmir between July 20 and 30, with very heavy rain over East and North-East India.

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Published on July 18, 2016