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Heavy to very heavy rain has been forecast at isolated places over South Coastal Andhra Pradesh and North Coastal Tamil Nadu on Saturday and Sunday.
This is in view of the anticipated strengthening of the well-marked low-pressure area over South-East Bay of Bengal into a depression, which is lately advanced to Thursday.
High wind alert
Squally winds with speeds up to 55 km/hr and gusting to 65 km/hr are likely to commence along and off these coasts from Saturday morning.
Gale winds with speeds of up to 70 km/hr and gusting to 80 km/hr may prevail over South-West and adjoining West-Central Bay, some distance off the coasts.
The sea condition would range from ‘very rough’ to ‘high’ (with waves 20-30 ft high). Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas. A similar outlook is valid for Sunday too.
Earlier on Tuesday, the India Met Department (IMD) extended the watch for a depression as a causative well-marked ‘low’ put itself on a slow burn over South-East Bay of Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood.
In fact, the system had moved away 400 km away from Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu relative to the previous day, with global models locating it a little more than 1,000 km East of Colombo on Wednesday morning.
This is being attributed to the strong westerly flows to its southern flanks, boosted further by flows being directed to another circulation (over East Equatorial Indian Ocean) immediately to its South.
Deep depression
Once the ‘low’ settles into a north-west track eyeing the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh coasts, it would go on to become a deep depression (next only to a cyclone) over the subsequent three days.
It would have enough time and space to intensify as it moves over the warm sea waters during this period, but the IMD has not taken a call on whether a cyclone is there for the asking.
The wind warning put out by it at gale wind speeds of 60- to 70 km/hr and gusting to 80 km/h on Saturday and Sunday tend to suggest that the system could indeed ramp up to a cyclone.
Extended forecasts for Monday to Wednesday (December 17 to 19) says isolated to scattered rainfall is likely over Peninsular India while being scattered to fairly widespread over Central and East India.
This indicates that, after the landfall, the system may shift track and move in a north-north-east track covering Central India and a remnant moving progressively into East India. This is expected to happen under the steering influence of passing western disturbances across North-West India, alternatively bringing cold and warm/moist weather over the region.
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