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Nifty 50, Sensex and the Nifty Bank index failed to sustain higher after opening the week with a wide gap-up. The benchmark indices fell all through the week. The fall intensified on Friday after Israel’s attack on Iran.
Although the Israel-Iran conflict can continue to keep the market under pressure, Friday’s price action indicates that the downside in the Indian benchmark indices could be limited. We will have to wait and watch the price action this week to see how the markets behave.
Also from a big picture, the fall last week has not changed the structure on the charts. The broader uptrend continues. We also retain our overall bullish view. So, any further fall from here should be considered as a good buying opportunity from a long-term perspective.
Among the sectors the BSE IT rose the most by 2.72 per cent. On the other hand, the BSE Realty index was beaten down the most last week. The index was down 3 per cent.
The Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) were net buyers of Indian equities last week. The equity segment saw a net inflow of about $390 million last week.
Nifty failed to sustain the break above 25,100 last week. It touched a high of 25,222.40 and then tumbled to a low of 24,473 on Friday. The index has closed the week at 24,718.60, down 1.14 per cent.
Short-term view: The outlook is slightly mixed. The expected rise to 25,600-25,800 that we have been mentioning for some time has not got negated but is just getting delayed.
Immediate support is at 24,600. If Nifty manages to sustain above this support, a rise to 25,000-25,100 can be seen in a week or two.
Important support to watch will be 24,450. Nifty will come under pressure for a fall to 24,200-24,000 if it breaks below 24,450. However, a fall beyond 24,000 is unlikely.
Chart Source: TradingView
Medium-term view: The overall bullish view is intact. The region between 24,000 and 23,500 can be a strong support which can limit the downside. As such we retain our bullish view of seeing 28,000-28,500 on the upside over the medium term. A corrective fall is possible thereafter.
From a long-term perspective, Nifty has potential to target 31,000.
Nifty Bank index fell sharply from its high of 57,049.50, wiping out all the gains made in the week ago. The index touched a low of 55,149.30 before closing the week at 55,527.35, down 1.86 per cent.
Short-term view: The index has room to fall more in the near term. Resistances are at 55,700 and 56,000. Failure to rise above 56,000 from here can take the index down to 54,500 or even 53,900. Thereafter a fresh rise towards 55,000-56,000 is possible.
A strong rise above 56,000 is needed now to regain the bullish momentum. Only then our bullish view of seeing 58,000 on the upside will come back into the picture.
Chart Source: TradingView
Medium-term view: The broader picture remains bullish; 53,900 and 52,500 are important supports. Nifty Bank index can rise to 58,000-59,000 on a break above 56,000. Therafter a corrective fall is possible before the index targets 61,000 on the upside over the long term.
Sensex broke the 80,500-83,000 range on the downside but did not sustain. It touched a low of 80,354.59 on Friday and then rose back into the range closing the week at 81,118.60, down 1.3 per cent.
Short-term view: If Sensex manages to sustain above 80,500, then a rise to 82,000-83,000 can be seen again. In that case, the 80,500-83,000 range will continue to remain intact. It will also keep the bullish bias intact to break 83,000 and see a rise to 84,500 eventually.
In case the Sensex declines below 80,500, a fall to 79,800 or even 79,000 can be seen. Thereafter a reversal is possible again.
Chart Source: TradingView
Medium-term view: There is no change in the broader bullish view; 79,000 will continue to act as a strong support and limit the downside. We retain our bullish view of seeing a rise to 86,000 over the medium-term. The long-term view of seeing 90,000-92,000 also remains intact.
Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite index remained higher and stable until Thursday. The Israel-Iran conflict triggered a sharp fall on Friday wiping out all the gains made during the week. The Dow Jones, down 1.32 per cent, fell the most. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite index were down 0.39 and 0.63 per cent respectively.
However, this fall has not altered our earlier bullish view. This could just be a temporary blip before the rise resumes.
Chart Source: TradingView
Support is at 41,800. While that holds, the Dow Jones can rise back to 42,000 and 43,000 again. It will also keep intact our broader bullish view of seeing a rise to 45,000 over the medium term.
The Dow will come under pressure for more fall only if it breaks below 41,800. Such a break can drag it down to 41,000, the next important support. A break below 41,000 will turn the outlook bearish and will completely negate our bullish view of seeing 45,000 on the upside.
Chart Source: TradingView
Support is at 5,940 which can limit the downside. A rise from there can take the index up to 6,050 again. An eventual break above 6,050 will then clear the way for the rise to 6,200 and 6,300.
In case the index declines below 5,940, it can fall to 5,800-5,770.
Chart Source: TradingView
Immediate support is at 19,270. Below that, 19,000-18,950 is the next important support. We expect the NASDAQ Composite index to reverse higher from either of these two supports and rise back. That will keep intact our bullish view of seeing 20.000-20,100 on the upside.
The bullish view will go wrong only if the index declines below 18,950. If that happens, a fall to 18,500 can be seen.
Published on June 14, 2025
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