Agri Business

Three new 'low's to bring more rains, predicts IMD

Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram | Updated on September 18, 2019 Published on September 18, 2019

A satellite image taken on September 18, 2019 at 1500 IST   -  IMD website

A string of low-pressure areas, with at least one going on to become a depression, will send the monsoon to a rare peak in the last week of this month, that is co-terminus with the end of the season as well.

The first of these ‘lows’ may spring up ‘any time’ over the West-Central Bay of Bengal and adjoining Coastal Andhra Pradesh, India Met Department (IMD) said on Wednesday afternoon.

String of 'low's

The second ‘low’ is forecast to materialise over the East-Central and adjoining North-East Arabian Sea, North Konkan, and South Gujarat by Friday, and it could go on to become a monsoon depression.

The Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Service predicts that the entire Gujarat, Saurashtra and Kutch regions slipping under heavy rainfall over the next few days, even as the depression heads out for Oman.

A third ‘low’ is forecast to develop over the East-Central Bay by September 24 (next Tuesday) bringing heavy rain to East-Central India, the East Coast and adjoining South Peninsula, the IMD said.

In fact, its wind profile projections suggested that the first ‘low’ brewing over the Bay would guide itself across Peninsular India and enter the Arabian Sea to set up the depression.

But the system developing later in the Bay would be an ‘in situ’ product, though monsoon easterlies from the North-West Pacific/South China Sea are seen lending it incremental support.

This ‘low’ would force some delayed, but welcome, rains into the variously parched areas of Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar, according to available forecasts.

Other signs of a strong monsoon include an East-to-West trough running from Saurashtra to the East-Central Bay of Bengal across the northern parts of Peninsular India. Additionally, an East-to-West shear zone of monsoon turbulence runs across the South Peninsula (Interior Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh) where the ‘low’s or depression flourish.

Combined with the prospect of the incoming ‘low’ from the Bay getting incorporated into this ecosystem, the shear zone is likely to persist during the next two to three days, and boost the rainfall for as long.

Widespread rainfall

An IMD update said that widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy and extremely heavy falls were recorded over Andhra Pradesh and Telangana on Tuesday.

Going forward, it has forecast fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Rayalaseema until Thursday.

A similar forecast is valid for Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra and Vidarbha mainly between Wednesday and Friday with extremely heavy falls being forecast over the Ghat areas.

Affected areas in this manner will include Madhya Maharashtra on Thursday, and North Konkan on both Thursday and Friday, an IMD warning issued on Wednesday said.

Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are likely over Gujarat for two days from Friday, even as the depression heads out away into the Karachi waters en route to Oman.

The fresh ‘low’ likely forming over the East-Central Bay on next Tuesday will bring a fresh wave of rain into parts of East and adjoining South-Eastern parts of the peninsula.

The IMD sees fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls over Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry as well as over North-East India.

Widespread rainfall is also likely over Central India and along the West Coast while it would be isolated to scattered over the rest of the country.

The rainfall over the country as a whole thus far during this monsoon had clocked in a surplus of four per cent as of Tuesday, despite persisting deficits over parts of North-West and adjoining East India.

Published on September 18, 2019
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