The Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI) stayed above its pre-pandemic level for a second week, rising to 100.8 for the week ended August 22 compared to 100.1 previously.

Mobility indicators continued to rise, with the Google workplace and retail & recreation index rising by 0.7pp and 3.1pp, respectively, while the Apple driving index rose by 4.7pp. Power demand contracted by 3.4 per cent week-on-week, reflecting payback after two weeks of solid increases, while the labour participation rate eased to 40 per cent from 40.4 per cent

While the NIBRI has reached its pre-pandemic level, Google mobility remains ~13-14pp below normal, suggesting further scope for the NIBRI to rise (by ~2-3pp), once mobility fully normalises. A third wave risk remains, though August hasn’t seen a flare-up, and the vaccination pace has risen to ~5.1million doses/day versus 3.9 million in July.

“We estimate Q2 (April-June) GDP growth contracted sequentially (-4.3 per cent q-o-q), but rose 29.4 per cent y-o-y, above consensus (20.5 per cent). The continued recovery in the NIBRI in Q3, and the upcoming festive season in Q4, the payment of dearness allowance arrears for public sector employees, ongoing vaccinations, easy financial conditions, and fiscal activism – all support our above-consensus GDP growth forecast of 10.4 per cent y-o-y in FY22 (year ending March),” Nomura said

Published on August 23, 2021