Modi’s UK visit: High on intent, showmanship

A fly-past of the Royal Air Force Red Arrows trailing the colours of the Indian flag, the London Eye lit up in orange, white and green, and an overnight stay at British Prime Minister David Cameron’s official country retreat were among the features of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s three-day UK trip that set it apart from other recent visits.

Cameron accompanied Modi for most of his brief, but intense, visit to the UK, batting aside questions about Gujarat riots and relegating it to the past. And while the numbers who attended Wembley on Friday were below expectations — around 35,000 rather than the 60,000 anticipated — the event trumped the gatherings held in New York and Sydney by a wide margin.

But beyond the pomp and fanfare, the long-term outcomes of the visit, and in particular whether it will lead to a step change in what has been a long running but tepid relationship, remains unclear. While trade between the two has been relatively stagnant over the past five years, the UK has also accounted for a falling share of Indian investment into Europe.

On a political level, the last bilateral trip of an Indian Prime Minister to Britain was in 2006, while it is noteworthy that it is the last major Western power that Modi has visited after coming to power. Unlike other governments such as those of France, Germany, Japan or China, Britain’s has been reluctant to put money behind its rhetoric, with investments such as in the Bengaluru-Mumbai economic corridor failing to materialise. And while Cameron himself has made India a priority, the position of other government departments is less clear.

“They are strategic partners but there is a real difference between the two. For the UK side there is a very strong focus on economic and trade links while from the Indian side that is only one leg of what a strategic partner is,” says Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, senior fellow for South Asia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “For the Modi government, in particular, the real issues are political and security in nature — counter extremism, counter terrorism, the UN Security Council membership, technology control regimes.”

Modi’s visit was certainly one riddled with statements of intent — including a lengthy text outlining their joint “vision” on everything from terrorism, to cooperation in defence aviation, clean energy, education and skills, and India’s Smart Cities initiative. Some £9 billion worth of deals were announced during the trip, while efforts to shore up India’s relationship with the City of London gathered pace, including plans to issue the first RBI-backed overseas rupee-denominated bond to fund railway infrastructure development, and private sector Masala Bonds here. A previously set up forum for Indian and British CEOs to work together to strengthen commercial and trade links was also revived, with hopes that its overtly practical mandate will lead to more action than past joint initiatives.

However, some must be seen in context. The deals, though numerous, remain small compared to those made by other nations on each side (such as the £40-billion deal signed between China and Britain). And some remain ambiguous, such as the signing of a deal on civil nuclear cooperation — mentioned only by Modi and details of which are yet to emerge. Other anticipated announcements, such as an extension of BAE System’s Hawk Trainer jet programme made in India, failed to materialise.

Major issues of concern to both sides remain unresolved — the treatment meted out to international students (particularly the limited options for them to stay on and work) was raised by India, but as officials themselves admitted, was likely to be the topic of ongoing discussions. Modi, referring to Britain as a “gateway” to the European Union, made clear that the strength of the relationship was pegged to a union that Britain was considering opting out of.

For both sides there were political gains though: the rapturous welcome that Modi received at Wembley (alongside protests that followed his tour) may have helped further his goal of stimulating investment by the prosperous British Indian community (who number around 1.5 million) back in India, while for Cameron, for whom the support of the South Asian community was essential in his victory in the May general election, the visit will have been a further boost.

On the defence and security side there were steps too. Roy-Chaudhury notes that during the visit the UK government finally took the step of naming anti-India militant groups in Pakistan — a move likely to be of importance to India. They also agreed to hold biennial summits, NSA level talks on South Asia, which would also likely involve discussions of Pakistan, and pledged greater cooperation on maritime and cyber security.

“The visit was useful in that it set up several important mechanisms which will try to take the relationship to a higher level…,” says Roy-Chaudhury. “This isn’t going to happen straight away — Britain won’t be back as one of India’s top five strategic partners in the near term, but the last 10 years have not been great for relations and this represents a step up. Now it will depend on implementation on both sides.”

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