MCX-crude oil in danger of further fall

Gurumurthy K BL Research Bureau | Updated on November 27, 2014 Published on November 27, 2014


The crude futures contract traded on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) has tumbled in the past week.

It recorded a high of ₹4,818/barrel on November 21 and has reversed sharply lower from there to ₹4,485 now. Technically, the 21-day moving average resistance, currently at ₹4,766 is continuing to restrict the contract.

Despite a key trend-line support at ₹4,450, price action on the charts suggests that the contract is vulnerable and a break below ₹4,450 is likely.

The outlook is bearish for a fall to ₹4,250.

Traders with a short-term perspective can go short with a stop-loss at ₹4,875 for the target of ₹4,300.

MCX-Natural gas: The MCX-natural gas futures contract is range-bound. It failed to breach its resistance at ₹281 per mmBtu in the past week and has reversed lower from the high of ₹280.9. This keeps the ₹243-281 range intact.

Within this range, there is a strong likelihood of the contract falling toward ₹243 – the lower end of the range.

Traders with a short-term perspective can go short at current levels. Stop-loss can be kept at ₹283 for the target of ₹248. Intermediate rallies to ₹280 if seen can be considered for accumulating more short positions.

Note: The recommendations are based on technical analysis. There is a risk of loss in trading.

Published on November 27, 2014
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