Turmeric reverses higher from key base

Yoganand D BL Research Bureau | Updated on January 20, 2018 Published on May 17, 2016


Turmeric futures contract traded on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) has surged 5 per cent last week to ₹8,506 a quintal, forming a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern in the week chart. This bullish momentum continued on Tuesday as the contract price rose more than 1 per cent to record an intra-day high at ₹8,648 levels as participants built-up long positions, backed by pick up in the demand at the spot market. But, the contract has subsequently started to witness marginal selling pressure and experiencing a volatile movement. It currently trades at ₹8,530 per quintal. This gives good opportunity for traders with short and medium-term perspective to go long in the contract. The contract has a significant long-term support in the band between ₹7,950 and ₹8,100. This support band arrested the contract’s decline in January, April and May this year. After taking support in this band in the previous week, the contract is on a near-term rally.

Medium-term view: Since taking support at ₹6,612 in July 2015, the contract has been on an intermediate-term uptrend. A conclusive break-out of a key medium-term resistance at ₹9,100 can reinforce the bullish momentum and take the contract higher to ₹9,600 in the medium term. Subsequent resistance for the contract is in the band ₹10,000 and ₹10,200. Traders with a medium-term perspective can buy in dips with a stop-loss at ₹8,150 levels. On the other hand, an emphatic decline below the significant long-term support in the band between ₹7,950 and ₹8,100 can mitigate the uptrend and drag the contract down to ₹7,500 in the medium term.

Short-term view: The short-term outlook is bullish for the contract. It took support at around ₹8000 last week and reversed higher forming a bullish engulfing pattern in the weekly chart which is a reversal pattern. The contract has also moved above the 200-day moving average recently, is also a positive sign. Traders can buy with a stop-loss at ₹8,300. The short term targets are ₹8,800, ₹9,100 and ₹9,400. Support at ₹8,300 and ₹8,100 can provide base.

Note: The recommendations are based on technical analysis. There is a risk of loss in trading.

Published on May 17, 2016

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