Anand Rathi

 

CMP: ₹347

Target: ₹423

a) The Railways and the civil segments saw strong order inflows, leading to 68 per cent y-o-y growth in orders. In Railways, traction was seen in track-laying, signalling, OHE and station building. Management said its Railways business would touch ₹2,500 crore in FY20 driven by the sturdy about ₹7,000 crore order backlog. Management expects its civil business to touch ₹4,000 crore in the next 3-4 years.

b) With soft tendering by PGCIL, orders from SEBs and the Green Energy Corridor (GEC) are expected. Management said that States such as Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Gujarat, West Bengal and Odisha would drive T&D capex. With the recent delay in awarding of GEC orders, fast-track tendering is expected in the next 2-3 weeks. International T&D will continue strong with traction from West Asia, Africa and the Far East.

Outlook: Though sales growth is expected to be strong, margins are expected to hold at current levels. The company expects order inflows of ₹14,000 crore in FY20 and a similar figure in FY21. Despite the strong order book and L1 for ₹2,500 crore, we expect revenue and PAT CAGRs over FY19-22 of respectively 10 per cent and 13 per cent.

Risks: Slowdown in ordering and pace of execution.

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