Markets opened with mixed signals on Thursday morning, with the Sensex gaining 68.48 points (0.08 per cent) to 81,513.14 and the Nifty rising 28.65 points (0.12 per cent) to 24,840.70, despite earlier predictions of a subdued start following the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision and escalating Israel-Iran tensions.

The benchmark indices showed resilience in early trade after closing lower for the second consecutive session on Wednesday. The Sensex opened at 81,403.94 against its previous close of 81,444.66, while the Nifty opened at 24,803.25 compared to its previous close of 24,812.05.

“The 24500-25000 range for the Nifty is likely to hold till news from the Israel-Iran conflict change for the better or for the worse,” said Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited. “If news of deescalation of tensions break, Nifty will break out of the upper band of the range.”

Among the top gainers in the Nifty 50, Eicher Motors led with a 1.22 per cent rise to 5,459, followed by Wipro gaining 1.19 per cent to 264.69. Titan Company advanced 0.97 per cent to 3,501.60, while Apollo Hospitals climbed 0.87 per cent to 6,993.50 and Tata Consumer Products gained 0.84 per cent to 1,074.20.

On the downside, Tech Mahindra fell 1.54 per cent to 1,684.40, making it the biggest loser. Adani Ports declined 1.52 per cent to 1,351.80, while Infosys dropped 0.63 per cent to 1,622.60. Tata Steel and IndusInd Bank also closed in negative territory, falling 0.53 per cent and 0.52 per cent respectively.

The Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates at 4.25-4.50 per cent came as expected, but policymakers’ hawkish tone regarding future cuts dampened sentiment. “The Fed decision and commentary have come on expected lines,” noted Vijayakumar. “Jerome Powell’s comment that ‘despite heightened uncertainty the economy is in solid position’ is important. However, he has warned that ‘tariff effects on inflation can be persistent’.”

Market technicals showed cautious optimism with key support levels intact. “For the Nifty 50, key support is seen at 24,600, followed by 24,400 and 24,200,” said Mandar Bhojane, Research Analyst at Choice Broking. “On the upside, resistance levels are placed at 25,000 and 25,200. A breakout above 25,200 may lead to a fresh rally.”

However, geopolitical concerns continued to weigh on investor sentiment. “Global sentiment is bearish because the chances of the US joining the Israel-Iran war have increased after President Trump’s statement yesterday that all options are on the table,” warned Akshay Chinchalkar, Head of Research at Axis Securities.

Institutional flows provided some support, with Foreign Institutional Investors purchasing equities worth ₹890 crore on Wednesday, while Domestic Institutional Investors invested ₹1,091 crore. The India VIX declined 0.89 per cent to 14.2750, suggesting reduced market volatility.

Commodity markets reflected the broader uncertainty, with crude oil prices remaining elevated near five-month highs. “The biggest worry for India would be crude oil prices, which has been rising since the outbreak of the war,” said Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP Research at Mehta Equities.

Gold prices remained under pressure following the Fed’s hawkish stance. “Gold prices remain confined within a narrow, downward trend despite the US Federal Reserve hinting at two potential rate cuts in 2025,” observed Aksha Kamboj, Vice President at India Bullion and Jewellers Association.

Banking stocks showed mixed performance with Bank Nifty expected to remain range-bound between support levels of 55,400-55,000 and resistance at 56,200-56,400. IT stocks faced pressure amid concerns over global growth, while pharmaceutical and consumer goods sectors showed selective strength.

The market’s immediate focus remains on developments in the Middle East conflict, with traders closely monitoring any escalation that could impact crude oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. “If the news is about escalation of tensions, particularly relating to troubles in the strait of Hormuz resulting in sharp spike in crude, it would be difficult for Nifty to hold on to the 24,500 support level,” Vijayakumar cautioned.

Despite the mixed opening, analysts maintained a cautiously optimistic outlook supported by strong institutional flows and improving domestic fundamentals, though sustained rallies may depend on clearer signals from both geopolitical and monetary policy fronts.

Published on June 19, 2025