Rollover numbers hint Nifty50 may struggle to cross 12,000 in October

KS Badri Narayanan Chennai | Updated on September 27, 2019 Published on September 27, 2019

The rollover of open interests on Nifty50 indicates that the index may struggle to breach 12,000 in October.

While the rollover at 73 per cent is slightly lower when compared with a three month average of 74 per cent, it is somewhat higher than the last month. Many shorts got squeezed in the previous month stellar rally, and a fresh bout of long positions was added primarily during the last few days of expiry. The premium of Nifty50 futures over the spot has also widened, presenting a positive bias.

The 11,000 strike holds the maximum open interest among put options, signalling a support point for the Nifty50. On the other hand, 12,000 and 11,500 saw strong open interests, indicating a resistance point for Nifty50.

However, India VIX at above 16 is still not in the comfort zone, said, Ramesh Chordia, a Chennai-based independent analyst.

The volatility index is currently hovering around 16.5.

Though traders carried forward their bullish bets to the October series on expiry of the September derivatives contracts on Thursday and closed their shorts, FPIs data still suggests caution only, he added,

FPIs sold close to Rs 5,000 crore worth shares in cash segment in September series.

However, the extreme pessimism in the market that was prevailing until mid-September is not currently there. Market participants have turned positive and waiting to add stocks.

Expectations the market could advance further with the government’s corporate tax rate cuts reviving sentiment, one could see a healthy buying on every correction, he said.


The trend is similar for BankNifty too, as most shorts were squared off in last series itself and fresh longs were added.

Among the stocks, BPCL, HPCL, Concor, Nestle and Amararaja Batteries have witnessed a healthy rollover while Zee Entertainment, TCS, Canara Bank and Glenmark Pharma have seen short rollovers.

Published on September 27, 2019
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