The rupee came under pressure on Friday, posting its biggest single-day fall in more than month to close below 86 to the dollar mark, as crude oil prices spiked in the wake of Israel launching a barrage of attacks on Iran’s nuclear and military facilities.

Central bank intervention, however, pulled the rupee up from the intraday low of 86.20 per dollar. The Indian currency closes at 86.08, down 48 paise against the previous close of 85.60.

Brent crude oil price spiked on concerns that the Israel-Iran war could disrupt global crude oil supplies. This could make crude oil imports costly, which in turn will have a depreciating effect on the Rupee. India’s crude oil import dependency is to the tune of 90 per cent.

IFA Global, in a report, said the Indian rupee weakened sharply, breaching the ₹86/$ mark, driven by a sudden surge in crude oil prices and heightened geopolitical tensions following Israel’s strikes on Iran.

“Brent crude jumped over 11 per cent intraday, raising concerns over India’s import bill, inflation outlook, and current account deficit. The RBI was seen intervening in the forex market through state-run banks to curb volatility, helping limit further downside in the rupee,” the report said.

Dilip Parmar, Senior Research Analyst, HDFC Securities, observed that the near-term market attention will be directed towards geopolitical developments over the weekend and the impending monetary policy decisions by three major central banks next week.

“The bias for the USD/INR pair remains supportive, driven by sustained haven demand for the US dollar and anticipated dollar demand from oil importers. Technically, the pair has support at 85.40, while resistance is observed in the range of 86.25 to 86.45,” he said.

G-Sec yield up

Meanwhile, yield of the new 10-year benchmark Government Security (6.33 per cent GS2035) rose 2 basis points to close at 6.30 per cent from previous close of 6.28 per cent on concerns that spike in global crude oil prices could have an inflationary effect on the economy.

The RBI rejected all the bids it received at the auction of the 6.98 per cent SGrB (Sovereign Green Bond) 2054 for ₹5,000 crore even as the other two auctions – of 6.79 per cent GS 2031 for ₹11,000 crore and of 7.09 per cent GS 2074 for ₹14,000 crore — sailed through successfully.

Bond market dealers said the intraday rise in G-Sec yields would have prompted the RBI to reject all the bids as they may have come in at higher yield levels.

Published on June 13, 2025