In this episode of State of Economy, businessline’s Shishir Kumar Sinha talks to Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency (ICRA) to dissect macroeconomic trends, exploring manufacturing growth dynamics, delving into GST collections, addressing inflation concerns, and forecasting future rate revisions. 

The podcast begins by addressing the issue of divergences between GDP and GVA. Nayar reveals the puzzling nature of recent figures, emphasising the sharp wedge between GDP and GVA growth in the third quarter of FY24. She attributes this to a significant expansion in net indirect taxes, shedding light on the implications for government finances. 

The conversation goes onto talk about the manufacturing sector, where Sinha seeks Nayar’s insights on the ongoing growth trajectory. She elucidates on the margin expansion driving manufacturing growth, cautioning about potential challenges ahead due to commodity price fluctuations. 

Discussing GST collections, Sinha and Nayar explore the factors contributing to the uptick, including compliance, consumption, and inflation dynamics. They delve into the intricacies of GST as a consumption-based taxation system, analyzing its implications for economic growth. 

Addressing inflation concerns, Nayar offers her expectations for the upcoming retail inflation numbers, emphasising the importance of factors like base effects and food price shocks. 

As the conversation concludes, Sinha and Nayar explore the prospects for future rate revisions, dissecting the implications of recent GDP data and high-frequency economic indicators. 

Host: Shishir Kumar Sinha; Producer: Amitha Rajkumar.

About the State of the Economy Podcast

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups.