A western disturbance is likely to help advance the monsoon in the hilly parts of North India in the first week of July, according to the MET department.

“A fresh western disturbance would affect northwest India in the beginning of July. We are expecting mild interaction of monsoon and western disturbance and this will help in advancement of monsoon in northern Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu division,” said B P Yadav, Director, India Meteorological Department.

According to Skyment, a private weather forecasting agency, there could be some respite in the first week of July for the national capital reeling under searing heat.

“With fresh monsoon over the west coast and the cyclonic circulation over north Bay of Bengal, the cumulative deficit might get narrowed down by a significant margin.”

“Monsoon will cover Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and west Uttar Pradesh by the first week of July and continuous rain is likely in the national capital and northwest plains, commencing around July 5,” the private agency said.

“West coast is also likely to experience above normal rainfall activity from the beginning of July onwards,” the IMD said.

However, rainfall may remain below normal over western parts of the country during the above period.

“The monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole between June and September is likely to be below normal at 93 per cent of the long period average with a model error of plus/minus four per cent,” Minister of State for Science and Technology, Jitendra Singh had said earlier this month.

In April, the Met Department had predicted a below normal monsoon at 95 per cent. The less rainfall is being attributed to El Nino condition whose chances of occurrence are as high.

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