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The Nomura India Business Resumption Index fell sharply to 109.9 for the week ending January 9 from a downwardly revised 119.8 during the prior week (120.3 previously). The index now stands 10 percentage points (pp) above pre-pandemic levels.
“The drop was largely due to an anomalous 50 pp weekly fall in the Apple driving index. The Google retail & recreation mobility index fell by 5.6pp, while workplace mobility fell by 0.7 pp. The labour participation rate inched down to 40 per cent from 40.6 per cent in the prior week, with the unemployment rate up by 0.7 pp to 7.3 per cent. Power demand rose by a tepid 0.2 per cent w-o-w after a 3.1 per cent fall in the prior week.,” Nomura said.
“The third wave is rapidly spreading, with daily new cases rising to nearly 180,000, although death rates remain low. Voluntary pullbacks and State restrictions (night curfews and on contact intensive services) are starting to bite, as evidenced by the fall in mobility and airline traffic. Studies suggest the third wave should peak by month-end, limiting the economic impact to Q1 2022,” it added.
The adverse growth impact of the third wave should be more muted than previous waves, but services will still take a larger hit.
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