The COP28 summit in Dubai looks set to close with a call for a global transition away from fossil fuels, the first time such an agreement is reached in nearly three decades of climate talks.

The latest draft of the final communique, published Wednesday morning, includes much stronger language on moving away from the dirtiest sources of energy, in line with a target to reach climate neutrality by the middle of the century. If Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing countries can agree to the wording — and Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman was a late night visitor to the presidency office — then the end of this COP may be approaching.

A meeting of Ministers is due later this morning to discuss the text.

Through the night, delegates huddling at the COP’s Expo center were optimistic that the final wording could be strengthened. A first draft agreement on Monday drew criticism from the US and European Union for not going far enough on the phase out of fossil fuels. Diplomats ran between bilateral meetings as the host, the United Arab Emirates, tried to issue a new version.

The presidency conducted discussions with various negotiating blocks into the early hours of the morning, well past what was intended to be the last day of COP28.

There is no official word yet from Saudi Arabia and others that have opposed a phase down of fossil fuels. 

(All time in Dubai)

All eyes on a fight on the plenary floor (8.11 a.m.)

While the deal currently contains much stronger language on moving away from fossil fuels, the big fight may well lie ahead.

Any standoff will likely take place at a plenary gathering of Ministers scheduled for 10 a.m. — a start time that is likely to be delayed. That’s where any opponents will make one final push to make their voices heard by demanding last-minute revisions to the text.

In Glasgow at COP26, India managed to shift language around an “unabated” coal phase out to the weaker “phase down” phrasing, in an intervention that was seen as also representing a bigger polluter, China. The question is whether Saudi Arabia or its peers will be willing to take an equally public stance as key opponents to a transition away from fossil fuels.

Methane set to receive mention for first time (8:06 a.m.)

Under the proposed text, countries would for the first time be agreeing to go beyond simply targeting carbon dioxide for reductions, broadening their work to include other greenhouse gases. The deal would call on nations to accelerate and substantially reduce those emissions globally, “including in particular methane emissions by 2030.”

That’s a recognition of the heat-trapping potential of methane, fluorinated gases and nitrous oxide — which are far more potent than carbon dioxide when it comes to driving temperatures higher. It’s also a sign of how voluntary deals unveiled on the sidelines of the UN climate summits can eventually find their way into negotiated text. The methane language emerges from a voluntary global methane pledge the EU and US launched two years ago that has now enrolled more than 150 countries as members.

However, the language is softer than an earlier option considered by negotiators, which would have laid out specific emissions-cutting targets, including an at least 30 per cent reduction in methane by the end of the decade and a 40 per cent reduction by 2035.

NGO reactions to the text filter In (7.42 a.m.)

The Natural Resources Defense Council, a climate non-profit, said the mention of fossil fuels in the latest text was much stronger than early versions, sending a signal that a century dominated by dirty energy is rapidly coming to an end. 

The text points to the end goal for carbon as “zero by 2050” and demands that world accelerates action “in this critical decade.” 

NRDC said that while the wording could be still reinforced to include all fossil fuels — not just those in the energy system – the signal is clear that the end of the fossil-fuel era has come.

Developing countries win concessions (7.36 a.m.)

The COP28 Presidency has looked to give emerging nations a number of wins to get a final agreement over the line.

In addition to allowing for different transition pathways, the proposal emphasises that finance and technology transfer are “critical enablers of climate action.” That yields to a push from developing economies struggling to balance the need to grow their economies with the need to slash emissions.

Wealthier nations also come in for criticism over progress thus far.

“Parties and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had earlier indicated that developed countries must reduce emissions by 25–40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020,” the text says. “Which was not achieved.”

Countries have different transition pathways in draft deal (7.25 a.m.)

The key change in the current draft is a shift away from “reducing both consumption and production of fossil fuels, in a just, orderly and equitable manner” in a key section of the text. 

Instead, the new document calls on countries to start “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science.”

Nations voting in favor of this version would agree that there is a “need for deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in line with 1.5C pathways.” They would be called upon to take a variety of “steps” to address them, charting their own paths “in a nationally determined manner.”

The phrasing reflects a principle that countries have common but differentiated responsibilities when it comes to addressing climate change.

New draft final deal text calls for fossil fuel transition (7:09 a.m.)

The latest draft deal, likely the one the COP28 Presidency tries to take into the final plenary, calls for a transition away from fossil fuels to enable the world to reach net zero by 2050. It’s a stronger text than Monday’s draft but could yet face a last-minute Saudi objection.

The text also added a line saying that transitional fuels — which, for developing nations include gas — can play a role in the shift away from carbon. A line on limiting new coal-power generation was omitted, but countries are called upon to accelerate the phase-down of unabated use of the dirty fuel.

UN carbon market at risk as COP28 split on rules (5.49 a.m.)

The fate of a United Nations-overseen emissions market that could help channel climate finance to poor countries is in doubt as nations at the COP28 conference are at odds over its rules.

The European Union and some Latin American countries rejected recommendations on the functioning of the mechanism. An attempt last night failed to secure a compromise, according to people with knowledge of the matter. A lack of endorsement of the standards proposed by the market’s supervisory body would mean a delay in making the market operational and no clarity on the next steps.

At stake is a mechanism enabled by the Paris Agreement that would allow companies compensate for some pollution at home by investing in projects in developing countries to cut emissions or remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Saudi Oil Minister arrives to meet COP28 officials (12:30 a.m.)

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman arrived at the presidency shortly after midnight. He walked past reporters, listening to an aide reading from a mobile phone. This is an important meeting — if Saudi Arabia agrees to something close to the proposed draft, we’re pretty close to the end.

New COP28 draft demands swifter fossil fuel transition (12:12 a.m.)

A copy of the compromise text under discussion was seen by Bloomberg News. It represents a more forceful assertion of the world’s commitment to cutting greenhouse gas emissions while steering clear of polarising promises to “phase out” fossil fuels that had drawn fire from Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing nations. 

India suggests fossil fuel language needs caveats (10:03 p.m.)

India’s chief negotiator Naresh Pal Gangwar met the COP28 presidency as part of the BASIC group, alongside China, South Africa and Brazil. On fossil fuel language, he said they suggested that the presidency must take into consideration countries’ “different circumstances” and varying stages of economic development.

COP president meetings will continue until 3 a.m. (9:38 p.m.)

“Overnight and throughout today, the COP28 president and his team have been engaging in extensive consultations with a wide representation of negotiating groups and parties,” a COP28 spokesperson said in a statement. “This is to ensure everyone is heard, and all views are considered. He is determined to deliver a version of the text that has the support of all parties. Consultations will continue until 03:00AM GST.” 

Kerry says new deal text Is stronger on fossil fuels (9:23 p.m.)

US climate envoy John Kerry said “progress is moving in the right direction” as he emerged from a meeting with other key Ministers and the UAE presidency minutes ago. The text had already been made stronger on fossil fuels, he said, and there had been “a lot of good effort” on financial commitments.

The text is “in a very different place from where we were yesterday, and it reflects the consultative process,” Kerry told reporters. “People have listened very carefully and there’s a lot of good faith on the table right now — people trying to move to a better place.”

Kerry said the talks were setting up a potential release of the next draft “in the wee hours of the night.”

Canada also seemed pleased by the direction of talks (9:06 p.m.)

Canadian climate Minister Steven Guilbeault said that the 1.5C temperature target laid out by the Paris Agreement was “absolutely” still alive after he left a meeting with COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber.

“We keep 1.5C within reach,” he told reporters. “I leave the meeting encouraged. Much more than yesterday.”

Norway’s Minister steps out of UNFCCC office in upbeat mood (8:52 p.m.)

Walking out of the UNFCCC pavilion Norway’s Foreign Affairs Minister Espen Barth Eide said discussions are “positively progressive.”

Earlier this evening, the Minister told Bloomberg News there are still major items to agree upon. “There is serious work going on to make a text we can commit to, with stronger language on mitigation and adaptation, but it’s not done — there will be stronger language on adaptation and mitigation, but exactly what it is we’ll have to see,” he said.

Long night expected at Expo City, despite deal optimism (8:45 p.m.)

Even if a deal is done in the next hour or so, it doesn’t necessarily mean COP28 will be able to wrap up tonight. A new text needs to be written, approved by lawyers and translated into five languages. Then there’s a lot of bureaucracy on the plenary floor that needs to be agreed before negotiators can even start to talk about the crucial fossil fuel wording.

UK Minister’s trip home hasn’t sat well with Tory opponents (8:38 p.m.) 

The UK government has been under criticism at home today after Graham Stuart, the Minister responsible for COP, flew home. Instead, Richard Benyon a Minister in both the environment department and foreign office, was present at a key huddle of Ministers with Kerry as talks neared to a close.

US climate envoy says he’s working on a stronger deal (8:20 p.m.)

US climate envoy John Kerry struck an optimistic tone before heading into a meeting in the COP presidency office with Ministers from Canada, Japan, Norway and other nations.

“We’re working very hard for that,” he said, referring to a stronger deal.

“I’m confident that we are going to see a different text,” he told Bloomberg News. “But, you know, we are working on that. I’m hopeful. I really am. Hopeful.” 

Just before going into the meeting, Ministers gathered for an impromptu huddle. Kerry smiled as he spoke to the assembled negotiators, at one point slapping two on the back. Music from a nearby restaurant thrummed in the background.   

COP28 CEO Amin says we’re on cusp of a deal (8:15 p.m.)

There’s a sudden mood of optimism around Expo City. COP28 CEO Adnan Amin, a key lieutenant of the summit’s president, Sultan Al Jaber, just told Bloomberg we’re on the cusp of a deal. Meanwhile, a big group of Ministers is waiting outside the presidency office for a briefing.

More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com

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