The next few months will pose a challenge to India as the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) maintained that India’s coronavirus tally may keep surging until early October, two-and-a-half months later than earlier speculations, Livemint reported.

The two-month-long nationwide lockdown has shifted the peak of the Covid-19 epidemic in India by 34-76 days from the earlier estimate of mid-July, the study by ICMR, along with the Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, and the National Covid-19 Taskforce–Operations Research Group and other international institutes said.

The ICMR model found that the number of coronavirus cases could have been fewer by 69 per cent to 97 per cent during the lockdown period, depending on the adherence of guidelines of the restrictions. The cumulative number of cases will, however, remain unaffected by the compliance pattern in the long term, it said.

The study, which analysed that the annual mortality rate from Covid-19 in India at 1.6 deaths per thousand, said the current resources dedicated to coronavirus including isolation beds, ICU beds, and ventilators will be exhausted by the third week of September.

“In the scenario of intensified public health measures with 60 per cent effectiveness after lockdown, the demand can be met till the first week of November," the study found.

Delhi will need 80,000 beds by the end of July, according to the state’s own estimate.

While the total number of cases in Delhi is likely to increase 1,00,000 by June end, the government is preparing to meet a demand for 15,000 hospital beds. Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Sunday organized a meeting with the state government, where they discussed the shortage of health supplies. Shah later announced that the Centre will allot 500 railway coaches as temporary isolation beds.

Among the worst-hit states, Delhi has the least number of Covid-19 beds at 9,802. Among other states, Maharashtra has 17,847 beds, Tamil Nadu 17,500, Gujarat 23,000, and Rajasthan 43,704, Livemint report added.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to hold a meeting with Chief Ministers to formulate a strategy to navigate the next phase of the coronavirus crisis. The meeting is scheduled for June 16 and 17 and will be done in two rounds.

Published on June 15, 2020