Dipping western disturbance to bring back wet weather to parts of South India

Wet weather is predicted to return to parts of South India with scattered rainfall over Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu while it will be fairly widespread to widespread rainfall over East and North-East India andisolated rainfall/snowfall over Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.

This will be the aftermath of eastward movement of an intense western disturbance currently lying over Central Pakistan, backed up by trough in the higher levels located over international border and adjoining South-West Rajasthan, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said this (Saturday) morning.

Deep circulation building

Given its depth and intensity (may likely to build up as a low-pressure are, if not a depression), it has dipped to the South to Hubballi and Ballari in Karnataka, and will set off rain/thundershowers over parts of the South by interacting with the easterlies emerging from the Bay of Bengal.

The IMD update pointed to the high moisture feed from Arabian Sea over North-West and adjoining Central India as also from the Bay of Bengal. Central India is likely to witness the confluence of moisture-laden winds from both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal for next 3-4 days.

Widespread rain, snowfall

The IMD has predicted fairly widespread to widespread light/moderate rainfall/snowfall over the hills of North-West India till Sunday before decreasing significantly thereafter. Isolated heavy rainfall/snowfall is likely over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh today and tomorrow (Saturday/Sunday).

Fairly widespread to widespread light/moderate rainfall is forecast over the plains of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, North Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh on both these days before letting up.

Thunderstorms breaking out

Scattered to fairly widespread light/moderate rainfall is likely over Madhya Pradesh from today until Tuesday; and over Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh from tomorrow to Tuesday. Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Punjab and Haryana, Chandigarh today (Saturday).

Isolated thunderstorms with lightning/hail may break out over Uttarakhand, Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, West Madhya Pradesh today; over East Madhya Pradesh on today and tomorrow; Vidarbha tomorrow (Sunday) and Monday; and over Chhattisgarh on Monday and Tuesday.

Isolated to scattered light/moderate rainfall is likely over East India from Sunday to Tuesday. Dense fog may spread out over East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, hills of West Bengal and Sikkim until tomorrow (Sunday).

Induced circulation

An induced cyclonic circulation has materialised over South-West Rajasthan and adjoining South Pakistan, which is already influencing the weather over adjoining North-West India and Central India.

The moisture pumped up from the Arabian Sea gets blown against the heights of the Himalayas, which later cools and forms clouds. It precipitates as snow or very heavy snow, rain or thundershowers and hail depending on the elevation of the region.

Night mercury trend

Warmth from the moisture associated with the western disturbance will ensure that minimum (night) temperatures stay at the current levels until tomorrow (Sunday) but may fall by 3-5 degrees Celsius thereafter as the system moves away to East and cold winds blow in its wake from across the border.

Gradual fall in minimum temperatures is also forecast over Gujarat during the next two days and no large change thereafter. Meanwhile, the East-bound western disturbance will start warming up East India by 2-3 degrees Celsius over the next two days, the IMD said.

Warm winds blowing over the cooled ground will trigger shallow to moderate fog in the morning hours in parts of Jharkhand, Odisha and plains of West Bengal during next two days and over North-East India during until tomorrow (Sunday). Thunderstorms and lightning may stalk parts of North-West India.

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