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The monsoon trough that lies extended diagonally across North-West India towards the South-East (Bay of Bengal or the North-Eastern States) is now moving towards the foothills of the Himalayas.
This will take away most of the rainfall activity towards the North-Eastern States, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and the Western Himalayas in what could likely resemble a ‘break monsoon’ phase.
The break phase occurs in July or August, and translates into cessation of rainfall over large parts of the country except the foothills of the Himalayas, the North-East and parts of the East Coast (including Tamil Nadu).
It is inevitable that the monsoon will go into a recess after a frenetic run for over a month after covering the entire landscape from South-West India to Peninsular India, Central India, East India and North-West India.
However, it might not yet lead to a break phase this time, if forecasts from the Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Service and short-to-medium outlook of the India Met Department (IMD) are any indication.
The IMD has concurred with the US agency’s projection of normal to above-normal rainfall over South Peninsular India during the week beginning Thursday (July 11 to 17).
Deficit in South
Earlier, the US agency had put out a similar forecast, citing likely dividends from the impending arrival of a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave. It is a global band of low-pressure carrying rain-bearing clouds.
This is forecast to amplify as it enters over the Indian Ocean to power a fresh spell of rain over South Peninsular India. The IMD, too, has pointed to the incoming wave that periodically travels from West to East.
For best results, though, the South may have to wait until July 15 when a helpful circulation might take shape off the Andhra Pradesh coast, per the latest available forecasts.
Only Karnataka has so far seen normal rainfall in the South, with the deficit ranging from 47 per cent in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry and 46 per cent in Kerala, 38 per cent in Lakshadweep 37 per cent in Coastal Andhra Pradesh to 35 per cent in Telangana, 32 per cent in Rayalaseema and 29 per cent in Coastal Karnataka.
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