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Global models see powerful cyclone in Arabian Sea, away from Indian coast

Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram | Updated on October 24, 2019 Published on October 24, 2019

The India Met Department (IMD) has maintained the outlook for a depression to materialise over the East-Central Arabian Sea, with a well-marked low-pressure waiting for the required calibration.

The transformation is expected to happen during the course of the day (12 hours), following which it would intensify as a tropical cyclone by Saturday.

A survey of leading global models suggested that a cyclone is indeed in the making as the prospective depression takes a U-turn away from the West Coast, and undergoes a gradual intensification.

Powerful cyclone?

Some of them go on to suggest that the cyclone would acquire raw power over the warm waters of the Arabian Sea, coupled with the assured stay there, until it reaches the Oman/ Yemen coasts.

The following are the graphical representations put out by these models, with respect to the track and intensification of the system over the next four to five days, away from India.

 

The Canadian Met Centre saw the system developing into a cyclone midway in the Arabian Sea, but beginning to weaken as it prepares to drift into the Oman coast (above).

 

The Global Forecast System (GFS) of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction, too, sees a similar traction, intensification and weakening sequence, but the cyclone is directed along a straight line across the Arabian Sea, taking it towards the Gulf of Eden-Yemen (above).

 

The US Navy Global Environmental Model shows an entirely different track, with the powerful cyclone changing course to the North midway from the Central Arabian Sea, and heading towards the Karachi coast in Pakistan, apparently under the influence of an intervening western disturbance from the opposite direction (above).

 

The Japanese Meteorological Agency tends to agree with the first two forecasts, which takes the cyclone towards the familiar track leading to the Oman coast, but with higher intensity than forecast by the first two (above).

 

Last but not the least, the UK Met Office model sees a powerful cyclone brewing in the Arabian Sea and racing towards the southern parts of the Oman coast (above).

Heavy rain forecast

Back home, in the Bay of Bengal, a well-marked low-pressure area persisted off the Andhra Pradesh coast in the West-Central basin on Thursday morning, the IMD said.

The Met has not indicated prospects of an intensification of the system; instead, it is forecast to trudge towards the North Andhra Pradesh coast.

Under the influence of the above system, in concert with the counterpart in the Arabian Sea, the IMD has forecast fairly widespread to widespread rainfall, with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka on the West Coast, and Odisha and Coastal Andhra Pradesh during the next two days.

Extremely heavy rainfall is likely over Konkan, Goa and Coastal Karnataka tomorrow (Friday).

Published on October 24, 2019
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