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The India Met Department (IMD) as well as other agencies have hinted at a strong onset phase of the monsoon off the Kerala coast from Friday (June 7), likely powered by a low-pressure area.
According to these forecasts, the ‘low’ may intensify and travel along the West Coast all the way up to Mumbai and Gujarat for almost a week until June 13.
Weather models are not ruling out the probability of a depression/cyclone developing along the way as the ‘low’ tracks along the Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Gujarat coasts during this period. The system will pull the monsoon along with it to upcountry areas, delivering heavy to very heavy rain along the coast and the adjoining interior areas, according to projections.
In this context, a cyclonic circulation over Lakshadweep and a persisting trough of lower pressure over the larger South-East Arabian Sea off the Kerala-Karnataka coasts are being watched closely.
Meanwhile, a moderate to strong ‘pulse’ of the monsoon-driving Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave has moved into the western parts of the Equatorial Indian Ocean (extreme South of the Arabian Sea).
The location and strength of this ‘pulse’ has helped enhance the cloudiness and rainfall over the Northern Indian Ocean and parts of the adjoining Southern Arabian Sea, an update by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said.
This may contribute to further movement to the North and development of the Indian monsoon, but the influence of the MJO wave may wane in the coming week.
Despite the slightly-later-than-normal start to the monsoon predicted around Thursday (June 6), the IMD predicts close to normal rainfall during the monsoon season across India.
Dipole may boost rain
El Nino conditions in the Equatorial East Pacific Ocean and temperature patterns across the Indian Ocean have been shown to influence India’s monsoon, the BoM said. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole, in which the Western basin of the ocean warms up relative to the East, is expected to evolve during the course of the monsoon, and should generate above-average rainfall.
The IMD said that an East-West wind shear zone of monsoon turbulence would develop across the extreme South Peninsula from Wednesday, leading to favourable conditions for the monsoon’s onset over Kerala in the subsequent three days.
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