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As the first week of August draws to an end, rainfall deficit for the country as a whole increased to -4 per cent mainly on account of a lean patch/large deficiency over West India (Gujarat, Saurashtra and Kutch) and the South Peninsula (Kerala, Lakshadweep, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana).
The deficit over these states/meteorological subdivisions showed up markedly during the week ending August 4, after witnessing normal to surplus rainfall during the previous week ending on July 28, statistics compiled by national forecaster India Meteorological Department (IMD) showed.
Gujarat, Maha may stay dry
In its latest outlook, the IMD said that reduced rainfall activity may persist over Maharashtra and Gujarat during the next five days as the overarching monsoon trough across the plains of North India moves towards further to the North towards the foothills of Himalayas, bringing back heavy rain to that region.
The change being brought about by this shift of the monsoon trough will become apparent in the increase in rainfall activity over the landslide and avalanche-prone Uttarakhand, northern parts of Uttar Pradesh, East, North-East and Peninsular India from August 10. Subdued rainfall activity is likely over rest of the country.
Rains return to North India
Fairly widespread/widespread rainfall is likely over West Madhya Pradesh and East Rajasthan during next two days before relenting in intensity and spread. Isolated heavy rainfall is likely today over West Madhya Pradesh and East Rajasthan. Clouds are also seen over Uttar Pradesh and East Madhya Pradesh.
Fairly widespread/widespread rainfall is likely over Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, northern parts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Sikkim from August 10. Isolated heavy to very rain is likely over East Uttar Pradesh, hills of West Bengal and Sikkim until tomorrow (Monday) and over Uttarakhand from Wednesday.
South too may benefit
Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is forecast for North-East. But rain-deficit South Peninsula could look forward to better times from August 10 since rainfall activity is shown to be reviving over Peninsular India in a fresh pulse with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall forecast over Kerala and Tamil Nadu from August 11.
Explaining the background features currently guiding the monsoon, the IMD said that the low-pressure area over Madhya Pradesh will start weakening from today (Sunday), which will cause the land-based monsoon trough shift to the North as mentioned earlier, due to lack of an anchoring system in the Bay of Bengal.
Next 'low' after August 15
This anchoring system will appear next with the formation of a fresh pressure low-pressure area and bring back the monsoon back to Central India and along the West Coast. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) hint at the next 'low' off Andhra Pradesh coast shortly after August 15.
The 24 hours ending on Sunday morning saw heavy rainfall (7 cm or above) at Khanpur-20; Guna-16; Jhalawar, Pratagarh, Sohra-14; Sangod13; Alapuzha, Vaikom, Vidisha and Begu-12; Sagar-11; Mandsaur, Subramanya, Nagaur-10; Kodagu, Shivpuri, Tripura-9; Ernakulam, Chinnakalar, Tonk, Bhungra, Shahabad, Nithuwa, Kochi, North Lakhimpur-8; Kollam, Chindwara, Rajgarh, Gorakhpur and Ghazipur-7.
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