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In a South-West to North-East arc extending over Peninsular and East India, the monsoon entered Maharashtra, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Bengal and Bihar on Friday.
Over the next three days, it is expected to check into the remaining parts of Karnataka, Telangana, Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra, entire Marathwada, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Bengal, Bihar and Jharkhand and some parts of Vidarbha, East Madhya Pradesh and East Uttar Pradesh.
A low-pressure area, which is engineering the revival of the monsoon, has shifted base to the North-West Bay and land features of Bengal and Bangladesh.
Track for ‘low’
The India Met Department (IMD) wind-field projections suggest that it would get a move to the West-South-West, enter land and move further South-West to Central and adjoining North Peninsular India in due course.
Along the way, it would bring rain over Bihar, Jharkhand Bengal, Odisha, East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Maharashtra and Konkan and Goa, by interacting with an incoming western disturbance.
An extended outlook from June 26 to 28 warns of widespread rainfall with isolated heavy/very heavy falls over the North-East and adjoining East-Central India.
Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is likely over Central India and adjoining South Peninsula and along the West coast and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
Meanwhile, strong winds and rough seas prevailed over the Lakshadweep area, along and off the Maharashtra and Goa coasts, and also around the 'low' over North-West Bay as the monsoon went into a revival mode.
On Friday, the northern limit passed through Ratnagiri, Sangli, Bijapur, Ramagundam, Jagdalpur, Phulbani, Jamshedpur, Asansol, and Purnea.
Extended outlook
The outlook for Saturday said that heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Coastal and Interior Karnataka, Kerala, and Marathawada while it would be heavy over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, East Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Odisha.
An extended range forecast by the IMD up to June 26 (Wednesday next) said as follows:
Above normal rain for Kerala, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and southern parts of East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Odisha and below normal to normal for the rest of the country.
It will be normal over Tamil Nadu for the first week (June 20 to 26) while below normal only for the northern parts of the State (including Chennai) during the second week (June 27 to July 3).
Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall may break out over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, and hills of Bengal during the first half of the first week.
Very heavy falls
Strengthened flows from the Bay would intensify the monsoon and trigger widespread rain with heavy to very heavy falls over these areas during the second half of the week.
Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall are likely over the plains of Bengal, Odisha, Bihar and Jharkhand during many days of this week.
Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall may lash the West Coast while it would be scattered to fairly widespread over Interior Maharashtra and Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh on most days and isolated heavy on some days. It will be isolated to scattered elsewhere over the country.
The second week (June 27 to July 3) could generate above normal rainfall for Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Kerala, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and southern parts of East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Odisha while it would be below normal to normal elsewhere.
Positive IOD phase
Currently, weak El Nino conditions are prevailing over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean and the latest forecast indicates that these conditions are likely to continue through the monsoon season and then turn back to neutral, the IMD outlook said.
El Nino conditions have in the past been associated with poor monsoon and even the odd drought in India, though with exceptions. So the current outlook should not grievously harm the ongoing monsoon.
What gives forecasters even more confidence here is the forecast of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions prevailing over waters in the country's own backyard, more or less mimicking El Nino-La Nina in the Equatorial Pacific.
During a positive IOD phase, sea-surface temperatures over the western basin of the Indian Ocean warms up anomalously relative to the eastern basin, and this is known to boost a concurrent Indian monsoon.
According to the IMD outlook, the latest forecast indicates that the positive IOD conditions are likely to continue for most part of the monsoon season.
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