Monsoon weakens in North as it awaits fresh ‘low’

The monsoon has weakened yet again over north-west India after a prevailing low-pressure area collapsed along with a parent trough that had lain extended along the plains there.

But before dying out, the ‘low’ delivered a stand-out performance by drenching Cherrapunji in Meghalaya with a massive 78 cm of rain overnight on Tuesday.

Fresh ‘low’ A remnant circulation is still hovering over north-east Uttar Pradesh and is forecast to sustain the rainfall with support from a truncated north-south trough in the region.

This trough lay extended from the foothills of West Bengal into west-central Bay of Bengal. The trough is forecast to come back to life with the formation of a fresh ‘low’ in the Bay by Saturday, signalling a round of rain for east-central and central India. The West Coast, including Konkan, Goa, coastal and south interior Karnataka, Kerala, Telangana and coastal Andhra Pradesh will make gains from this spell.

Concurrently, a heat wave will come back to haunt north Madhya Pradesh, south Uttar Pradesh and east Rajasthan. Gujarat and west Rajasthan will continue to remain largely dry.

Neoguri landfall Meanwhile, the fresh ‘low’ over northwest Bay of Bengal will pop on the trail of super typhoon Neoguri that would have blasted its way for a second landfall over mainland Japan.

On Tuesday, the monstrous storm had bore down over the Okinawa island chain south of Japan with dangerous winds and sweeping rain.

Neoguri has weakened on erupting in heavy rain and high winds in this manner over Okinawa, but would still retain typhoon status as it wades into mainland Japan.

Global models indicate the possibility of a buzz building over northwest Pacific in Neoguri’s trail but signal formation two ‘lows’ evolving within a large trough in the open waters here.

Buzz in Pacific One is shown as steaming towards northern Philippines but earlier forecasts of it developing further as a typhoon (cyclone) has been withdrawn for the time being.

But the system would need to be watched as it enters South China Sea next, which lies next door to Bay of Bengal, for any impact on Indian monsoon.

Normally, storms taking this westward path towards Indo-China are known to send in ‘pulses’ across international waters into the Bay where they develop as helpful ‘lows.’

But this possibility is still largely in the realm of conjecture since it remains to be seen if the ‘low’ does indeed make it South China Sea and evolves there.

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