N-E monsoon likely to make onset on November 1

India Met Department (IMD) has announced November 1 (Thursday) as the fresh date for the onset of North-East monsoon over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala and adjoining Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh.

After October 8 and 26, this is the third time on a trot that the IMD has been made to rework its schedule for the North-East monsoon in what has been an intensely testing year for it.

'Low' over North Bay

A low-pressure area is likely to form over West-Central and adjoining North-West Bay of Bengal by tomorrow. But this is of no consequence to Tamil Nadu or the rest of the South Peninsula. This is a 'gift' from super typhoon 'Yutu' now approaching the Philippines, but had strayed in the Bay due to lack of an adequate steering mechanism.

So, the rains would in turn get directed to the North towards Coastal Odisha. Squally weather has been warned over West-Central and North Bay for today. Fishermen should not venture into these areas. Similar conditions would prevail tomorrow also and the warnings are applicable. After the 'low' fades out over Bengal, the stage would be likely set for the North-East monsoon over the South Peninsula.

Importantly, the much-awaited high-pressure area and its clockwise winds regime (easterlies to the South), which steers and guides the monsoon, is shown as settling over North Peninsula. It would be slightly disbursed from its normal bearing due to the onslaught from dry westerly winds from western disturbances, and sit over the North Bay for the time-being.

'Low' to South?

What needs to be watched is the behaviour of a cyclonic circulation located this morning over the South-West Bay and adjoining Sri Lanka. The US National Weather Services sees a southerly push from across the Equator and increasingly pumping moisture over the next few days to strengthen the system to a 'low' or a depression.

It is shown as crossing the South Tamil Nadu Coast and adjoining Kerala and emerging into the Arabian Sea where it would find further traction as it heads North towards Gujarat/Mumbai. Some other models show a typically westward course towards the Horn of Africa or further North to Yemen but without no scope for major development.

The US Climate Prediction Centre had earlier predicted the formation of the 'low' over the Bay as well as hinted 'some development' in the Arabian Season early into the season. Meanwhile, back home, the North-East monsoon would be maintained in full flow by easterly waves in the first week of November, even with the prospect of another 'low' forming over the South-East Bay.

COMMENT NOW