Over the weekend, the Tamil Nadu Government announced an increase in milk prices, of ₹10 a litre, across all varieties of milk sold by Government agency Aavin. The hike ranges from 30 per cent to 44 per cent.

As expected, the Opposition parties are protesting the hike and demanding that it be rolled back.

It is left to a hapless O Panneerselvam, Chief Minister, to implement and justify an unpopular decision. He took over as Chief Minister after J Jayalalithaa had to step down following her conviction and sentencing by a special court in Bangalore in a corruption case dating back to her first term as Chief Minister in 1991-96.

Interestingly, this is the second occasion Panneerselvam has had to announce and implement a price increase as Chief Minister; the last time was in 2001-02 when he was Chief Minister for less than six months. Then, the Government announced an increase in power tariffs and bus fares.

This is the second time that Panneerselvam is stepping into Jayalalithaa’s shoes, as Chief Minister; the first was in September 2001 after Jayalalithaa led her AIADMK to power in the Assembly elections held a few months earlier. That time, Jayalalithaa, who did not contest the elections because of conviction in two corruption cases, had to step down after the Supreme Court unseated her.

Then, Panneerselvam’s tenure lasted less than six months, as Jayalalithaa came back as Chief Minister in March 2002.

Even in 2001-02, no one was in any doubt that it was Jayalalithaa who was calling the shots, as she must be doing now.

In 2001-02, when it was suggested to her that the power tariff and bus fares be increased in two gradual steps to soften the blow on the public, she is supposed to have remarked that she would rather be unpopular once and be done with it.

All important issues are referred to her and it is only under her directions that decisions are taken and implemented.

Panneerselvam has retained all the ministers from the Jayalalithaa Cabinet and the ministers have started holding review meetings and the like. Some of them even conduct the meetings with a framed photograph of their leader placed in front of them.

So, is it business as usual in Tamil Nadu? Not quite. As things stand, Jayalalithaa has to file her appeal against the conviction before December 18, and she has to work out a strategy with her legal team and hope to get her conviction overturned, if she is to contest and lead her party in the 2016 Assembly elections.

Right now, Jayalalithaa cannot contest the 2016 elections, which puts a huge question mark over the AIADMK’s prospects. For, there is no second rung leader in the party who can be projected as a chief ministerial candidate. The DMK must be licking its lips in anticipation, waiting for the 2016 elections.

Resurgent BJP The DMK, at one level, may be more worried by the prospects of a resurgent BJP than the AIADMK without Jayalalithaa leading the party. For, there is space for a national party in the State. The Congress still has a presence in the State, but it needs either one of the Dravidian parties to ride piggyback on. Also, driven by factionalism, the Congress no longer commands the kind of respect and following it once had.

As an astute reader of Tamil Nadu’s politics pointed out, nobody likes a vacuum and if Jayalalithaa is not in contention to be the Chief Minister at the next elections, some other party will fill up that space, as also partly that occupied by the Congress. The BJP is on a winning spree having just won in Haryana and Maharashtra. The voter sees the party winning and he or she will like to be on the winning side.

It does not mean that the BJP can hope to sweep to power in the State; it hardly has a base here. At best, it can hope to win a substantial number of seats and become a vociferous Opposition party, for a much bigger play at a later date. It all depends on how well its central leadership and State leaders plan their strategy.

The bigger worry for Tamil Nadu is on the development and industrial front. The State is woefully short of electricity; it has been so for some time and the DMK and the AIADMK have been quite content to blame each other for the mess. The early monsoon showers have exposed the poor infrastructure in Chennai and its suburbs.

Wooing investors Chandrababu Naidu, who earned a name as a CEO-Chief Minister, is back as Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh, after the division of the State into Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. He is sure to pull out all stops to woo investors as he has a point or two to prove.

Investors know that Panneerselvam is only a stand-in Chief Minister. Besides, the bureaucracy in Tamil Nadu too is no longer what it used to be — quiet, strong and working behind the scenes to keep the administration going. In this situation, who would investors approach to get their problems redressed and issues addressed?

But, as an industry watcher quite pithily put it, Tamil Nadu is like a car in motion and which is now in neutral gear and its engine switched off. The momentum will keep the car moving, at least till 2016, but after that what? That is the big question.

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