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The India Met Department has assessed that there is a high probability (76 per cent) of maximum temperatures in the ‘core heat wave zone’ during April-June to be above normal.
This zone covers Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha and Telangana and Met subdivisions of Marathwada, Vidarbha, Madhya Maharashtra and coastal Andhra Pradesh.
Seasonal forecast This in turn suggests high probability of moderate and severe heat wave conditions in the zone during the hot weather season of April to June, the Met said.
The special forecast has been made available as part of the seasonal outlook for summer temperatures over the country being initiated by it.
The Met will also provide extended range forecasts of (five-day averaged forecasts for next 15 days) heat wave conditions over the country.
They will consist of probability of occurrence of hot days, heat waves and severe heat waves for the next 15 days updated every fifth day from April 1.
El Nino influence According to the forecast for the hot weather season of April-June, the Met said warmer than normal temperatures are expected to prevail in all meteorological subdivisions.
Average temperatures over North-West India are expected to be above normal by more than 1 deg Celsius.
Above normal heat wave conditions are very likely over Central and North-West India.
In the past, El Nino events over the Pacific were known to cause severe heat wave conditions over the country. Strong El Nino conditions that started in 2015 are still continuing.
It has been observed that the hot weather seasons following El Nino years have seen above normal temperatures, including moderate to severe heat wave conditions, prevail in most parts of India.
For instance, years 1973, 1995, 1998, 2003 and 2010 followed by El Nino years of 1972, 1994, 1997, 2002 and 2009.
Heat wave conditions During 2015, prolonged severe heat wave conditions prevailed over Andhra Pradesh and parts of Telangana which claimed more than 2,500 lives.
Recent research analysis suggests that frequency and duration of heat waves over the country are showing an increasing trend.
Abnormally above normal temperatures can have devastating effects on human health, water resources and power generation and outage.
There is a marked relationship between human mortality and thermal stress.
The Met said that year 2015 was the third warmest for the country since 1901.
Significantly above normal temperatures prevailed during the last two months (January and February).
These temperatures were higher by 1.53 deg Celsius and 2 deg Celsius respectively above the 1961-90 normal.
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