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The monsoon is getting active over East and North-East India after it lost its momentum over the West Coast with a crucially supportive atmospheric feature weakening.
The initial thrust had led weather models to believe that the monsoon would reach Mumbai by now but the weakening of the offshore trough has put paid to such hopes.
Major influence The trough lies over the sea just off the coast and has a major influence in steering the monsoon flows towards land in the right quantum and intensity to sustain the rainfall over land.
Its weakening has apparently brought the monsoon progress over the coast to a brief halt.
The trough is now expected to revive by the weekend and trigger a fresh rain spell from Kerala to Goa.
According to projections by the India Meteorology Department, a cyclonic circulation may spring up off the Andhra Pradesh coast during this period and help drive rain from the Bay of Bengal into Central India.
It may also set up interaction of the easterly winds from the Bay with the westerlies from the Arabian Sea generating rainfall in the process over parts of North-West India as well.
Dateline Mumbai This may help bring in the pre-monsoon showers to Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and even Delhi apart from triggering some heavy falls along the Himalayan foothills in the region.
On the West Coast, this phase might see the arrival of the monsoon over Mumbai and the rest of the peninsula, though Gujarat would have to wait for longer.
Position, extension and strength of the offshore trough have a major role in determining the extent of rainfall over Gujarat.
The monsoon usually advances into Gujarat in the third week of June and withdraws from the second week of September.
Livelier week Nearly 95 per cent of the state’s annual rain falls during the monsoon period, of which July contributes as much as 45 per cent.
The Met projections did not indicate monsoon rains entering Gujarat up till June 20. But the US Climate Prediction suggests that the first few showers may fall during the June 19-25 week.
The entire West Coast stretching from North Kerala to Konkan-Mumbai is forecast to come under heavy to very heavy rain during this period, per the US agency.
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