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India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that a new low-pressure area, probably the last of the 2020 South-West monsoon season, may form over the North-East Bay of Bengal by Sunday as a remnant of tropical storm Noul over the South China Sea crosses in across Indochina.
Noul was located on Wednesday some 500 km West-South-West of Manila, Philippines, which will track West-North-West to cross the archipelago and enter the South China Sea to intensify into a minimal typhoon (cyclone) that purportedly charts a course towards the Vietnam coast for landfall.
Meanwhile, the 24 hours ending Wednesday morning saw heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy falls being recorded over Assam and Meghalaya. At the same time, it was heavy to very heavy rainfall over Telangana and the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim and heavy over Coastal Karnataka and Coastal Andhra Pradesh.
Major stations recording heavy rainfall (in cm) during this period included Cherrapunji-25; Nagar Kurnool-19; Kollapur-17; Thimmajipeta and Barobhisha-12 each; Bheemgol and Pundibari-10 each; Kakinada and Narayanpet-9 each; Shirali, Kakinada and Pasighat-8 each; and Surendranagar, Padmapur and Cooch Behar-6 each.
Prevailing low weakens
By Wednesday evening, a prevailing low-pressure area from the Bay had weakened and lay as a cyclonic circulation over Telangana. In the North, the western end of the monsoon trough close to the foothills of Himalayas. The eastern end continues to pass through Bareilly, Varanasi, Hazaribagh, Malda and thence eastwards to Nagaland across Bangladesh, Assam and Meghalaya. The eastern end should revert back to the Bay as the next low forms there by Sunday.
Fresh rains over East India
The incoming storm from the South China Sea may weaken over land over Indochina, move further West-North-West and enter the North-East Bay of Bengal to set up the low-pressure area, the European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts said, agreeing with the outlook generated by the IMD.
An extended outlook by the IMD for September 21-23 forecast fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls along the West Coast and over Interior Maharashtra, hills of West Bengal, and the North-Eastern States. Scattered to fairly widespread rain is forecast over Peninsular and East India with isolated heavy falls over Odisha and Chhattisgarh. Isolated rainfall is likely over Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and East Uttar Pradesh.
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