The words come tumbling from Cobra Beer founder Karan Bilimoria in a torrent as he talks about the looming risks of a “disorderly” Brexit. “It’s worse than you can imagine. All the chickens are coming home to roost,” says the British peer who’s been campaigning non-stop to prevent Britain from a bitter parting of the ways with the European Union. Ever since Britons narrowly voted to exit in a 2016 referendum, he’s been writing anti-Brexit newspaper articles and making speeches in the House of Lords. Most recently, he was among a group of top business leaders who called for a second “People’s Vote” on whether Britain really wants to cut itself adrift from the EU after building its entire economy around it for over 40 years. “From the beginning, everyone underestimated the complexity of the exercise,” says Bilimoria heatedly.

Now Prime Minister Theresa May says Brexit talks are in the “endgame,” and there's a chance of a deal this week. But Bilimoria has lots of company when he says Britain’s making a monumental mistake in axing EU ties. Three ex-prime ministers, Tony Blair, John Major and Gordon Brown, have called for a fresh vote.

Even more crucially from a political standpoint for beleaguered May, last Thursday, Jo Johnson, the Remain-backing younger brother of Leave leader Boris Johnson, quit as transport minister. In a blistering 1,600-word resignation letter, Jo Johnson accused May of presenting Britons with a choice between “vassalage and chaos” and declared it would be a “democratic travesty” not to allow another referendum.

In his letter, he noted Brexit had split his family and the rupture was on display again Monday when Boris, who resigned as foreign minister last July, wrote a stinging article urging May’s cabinet to mutiny. Boris said May was forcing through a deal that would keep the UK locked in a customs union with the EU and represent a “total surrender” to Brussels.

Brexit’s important for India in many ways. Britain’s often the first port of call for any Indian firm venturing abroad and many of our software services companies have ongoing contracts there. Tata Motors-owned Jaguar Land Rover, Britain’s biggest carmaker, has warned a “bad” Brexit deal would cost it £1.2 billion a year and curtail future operations.

Also, London’s been the hub of the financial universe where Indian companies go to get deals done. From a larger standpoint, the Brexit imbroglio is a case-study on how a government can box itself into a corner from where there’s no escape. “It’s like watching a train crash in slow motion,” says Bilimoria in exasperated tones.

Blaming May

Ardent pro-Brexit supporters lay the blame for the mess squarely at May’s door. And she’s stuck because moderate Brexiteers, who’d hoped there might be a middle-of-the-road path out of Britain’s troubles, are getting cold feet at the growing flight of corporate and financial jobs to Europe over Brexit. And as unemployment worries and warnings of food and medicine shortages mount over Britain’s EU exit, the tide of public opinion appears to be turning. A new poll suggests 54 per cent of Britons would vote Remain in contrast to the 48.1 per cent who voted in 2016 to stay in the EU. Even if May can get cabinet agreement on broad outlines of an exit deal and afterwards parliamentary assent — and that’s a huge if at this point — it will mark only the first step. The really hard part comes afterwards in the niggling details of what Britain can and can’t do in Europe.

There are worries planes will be grounded unless Britain works out licensing agreements with each of the EU’s 27 other countries. Britain says it will get around this by granting operating rights to all EU airlines in hopes the other countries return the favour. British planes also have the right to fly from one European city to another and an agreement on that could be even tougher to hammer out.

In another serious turn, British ministers have realised most trucks travel from Dover to Calais and, if they have to go through customs checks, it will as one minister put it, “turn the whole of Kent into a parking lot.” In addition, there are major issues about security because Britain’s a key member of EU security agencies.

But the greatest dilemma is about what’ll be done about Northern Ireland. Under the Good Friday Agreement struck with Ireland in 1998, the UK guaranteed open borders between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland and helped solidify the peace process. Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar has firmly warned Britain it can’t go back on this. There’s been talk about border controls in the Irish Sea between Ireland and the British mainland, but nobody’s clear how that would work.

Also, compounding May’s problems, Northern Ireland’s small Democratic Unionist Party, on which her minority government depends, has said it won’t tolerate such a border. Says Bilimoria: “Northern Ireland is the Achilles heel of Brexit.” And the EU’s in no mind to do the UK any favours, insisting May can’t “cherry-pick” the deal it wants.

The result is the entire British political class is in a fix. Brexiteers say this wasn’t the Brexit they dreamt about. Hardline Conservatives like Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson advocate a damn the torpedoes “no-deal option” which would mean crashing out of Europe without any agreement about what happens March 30, 2019, when the new order is scheduled to come into place.

On the opposition side, Labour Party members have voted for a second referendum if needed. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, a far-leftist who sees the EU as a capitalist haven, opposes the vote idea but his more right-wing MPs don’t share that view. So it’s likely May won’t be able to push any deal through parliament.

Delay Brexit?

Are there any ways out? Bilimoria advocates delaying Brexit at least till December 2019 and also looking at the so-called Norway Option, which involves a relationship like the one which Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein have with the EU, as members of what’s called the European Free Trade Association.

One way or another, time’s running short. Britain has slightly over four months to find a way out of its EU quagmire. A delay on the departure, followed by a second Brexit vote, would probably be the best option. But there are people who’ve already concluded a no-deal Brexit is most likely and they’re stocking up their larders with baked beans and other non-perishables in case the worst-case scenarios really do come true.

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