Is this an inflection point in Narendra Modi’s fortunes? Farmers in the BJP’s heartland are up in arms, justifiably so after the ham-handed handling of the agitation in Mandsaur, by the Madhya Pradesh government. The bug seems to be spreading to other parts of the country with farmer organisations announcing plans for a national shavasan performance on highways on International Yoga Day.

The Opposition, reduced to inconsequence and battered from the drubbing it received in the UP elections, has suddenly got a major issue handed to it on a platter and grabbed it with glee. That the ongoing farmer protests are in fair measure being fanned by political parties is saying the obvious. Who can grudge them their day under the sun, finally, and who can fault them for doing what they’re supposed to do — oppose the ruling party and its policies, and exploit its weaknesses.

A genuine distress

Blaming the Opposition for “politicising” the agitation by farmers, thus, will not do the BJP and the Centre any good. The fact is that there is genuine distress out there being experienced by farmers who are ironically facing a rout in a year of bountiful harvests when their pockets ought to have been jingling with coins and cash. The farmer angst now being witnessed in MP, Maharashtra and Gujarat is different from what follows a failure of rains. And therefore, the policy approach has to be different too.

Though agriculture is a State subject, the fact, whether one likes it or not, is that it is identified more with the Centre in the eyes of the farmer. With grandstanding from the Parliament by successive finance ministers in their budget speeches with mighty allocations for agriculture, irrigation and so on, and promises such as that made by none less than Modi himself in pre-election rallies in UP of farm loan waivers, the Centre, willy-nilly, is seen as the last resort by the Indian farmer. There is no point in now attempting to shift the onus on to States. Anyway, the States in turmoil now are all ruled by the BJP, and by extension Modi, in the eyes of the farmer.

Modi’s silence

The most notable aspect of the farmer unrest in the last week and more is the absolute silence of Modi even as Opposition politicians are attempting to capitalise on the issue. This is uncharacteristic of the Prime Minister who rarely lets the initiative slip out of his hands.

In the three years that he’s been at the helm, Modi has weathered several controversies starting with the conflict with the Opposition over the land ordinance, the intolerance debate and award wapsi and, of course, the biggest of them all, over demonetisation. The common man took the hit from demonetisation bravely on his chin because he thought he was doing his bit to fight the ugly rich that hoard black money. Modi had the aam admi solidly behind him despite all the trouble that they endured.

But the current agitation by farmers is different; it is a question of their livelihoods. It would be a mistake if the political leadership at the Centre thinks this too shall pass away. It will not. More than half of the labour force is engaged in agriculture and almost two-thirds of households bank on the farm for their incomes. The demand for loan waivers is only a symptom of the disease and it would be wrong to conclude that by waiving loans the disease has been cured. It will return in a more virulent form the next agriculture season.

The underlying disease is one of agriculture turning unviablefor numerous reasons. There are structural problems that need to be addressed through remunerative prices for produce, easier access to markets, improving storage for commodities and perishables, reforming the agri-chain from the farm to the fork and fine-tuning tariff and exim policies for agri commodities.

In short, agriculture needs to be given as much importance as industry. We need a Grow in India and a Stand Up India for farmers. Not piecemeal measures. Promises such as doubling farmer incomes by 2022 need to be followed through with action on the ground.

Need to do more

To be fair, a number of interesting initiatives such as an electronic national agricultural market or e-NAM, PM Fasal Bhima Yojana, issuance of soil health cards and so on have been unleashed by Modi. But they’re all either not being pushed through enough or are peripheral to the issues at hand.

The current situation is a throwback to what prevailed during the last year of the Vajpayee government in 2003. There are too many similarities between then and now, economically and politically. Then, as now, the focus was all on industry and infrastructure. Massive investments went into building roads that, incidentally, serve us well today; GDP was accelerating past the 6- per cent mark, inflation was below 5 per cent, oil prices were at historic lows, the fiscal indicators were excellent and the stock markets were on a roll. Carried away by these, the NDA government embarked on the infamous India Shining campaign to trumpet their achievements.

The Congress was listless then, as it is now, and the BJP though in a minority government, appeared to be on top. The watchword is “appeared”. The fact is that there was rural distress, with development not reaching the hinterland. The thriving economy in the urban areas widened inequalities and alienated the rural population from the ruling dispensation. Vajpayee’s government failed to spot it with disastrous consequences for the BJP in 2004.

Modi is too smart to not have learnt his lessons from that experience. The current distress in agriculture needs to be addressed quickly and comprehensively. Industry has dominated the discourse in the last three years. It should be agriculture in the next two. Else, it could well be a India Shining deja vu for NDA-II, come 2019.

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