A Modi Tsunami

The 2019 Lok Sabha election results are a remarkable win for Narendra Modi, bettering his last campaign performance in many respects. Apart from the fact that the Bharatiya Janata Party has once again secured an absolute majority, this time its tally is more widely distributed than in 2014. While largely holding on to the Hindi heartland and western regions, it has made inroads into West Bengal, Telangana and Odisha, while surpassing its 2014 tally in Karnataka and sweeping the State. While Modi conquered New Delhi as a subaltern outsider in 2014, this time he managed to shrug aside strains of anti-incumbency, while ensuring that his ‘man of the masses’ tag remained intact. Brazening his way through criticism of his government’s economic performance, he effectively used planks of stability and national security, post Pulwama, to win the backing of the people for a second term. Indeed, this was another ‘Modi Tsunami’, knocking out political stalwarts on the other side as in 2014. As in the past, he emerged stronger when attacked. The BJP’s ‘idea of India’ might have been contested in certain circles, but it enjoys considerable support today, cutting across caste lines and upsetting the calculations of regional parties that have traditionally relied on caste coalitions to stitch together electoral victories. The performance of the much-touted Mahagathbandan in Uttar Pradesh has been profoundly disappointing, while the Rashtriya Janata Dal has been reduced to a footnote. The Congress’ dismal show after its recent Assembly victories seems to suggest that Rahul Gandhi’s ploy to target Modi’s probity misfired. Modi shouldered the campaign — a gritty, bitter, nasty and prolonged one — and ensured that his politics of muscular nationalism, with the promise of development ‘after half a century of stagnation’ thrown in, prevailed. This is a mandate for him, perhaps even more than it is for the BJP. It did not help that the Opposition, in contrast to the organisational efficiency of the BJP, remained in disarray through the polls, unable to decide on either campaign strategy or seat sharing. Above all, their leaders, many of them jaded regional satraps, failed to project a compelling vision, their own credibility coming in the way. A shrinking Congress in the national space leaves a vacuum waiting to be occupied to provide a much-needed countervailing force, political and ideological, in our democracy.

The election over, it’s time to set aside the aggressive rhetoric that marked the campaign — notably, Pragya Thakur’s excesses — and provide a healing touch. For investment, growth and development, stability, in terms of policies and the social climate, is essential. The new government’s Budget should address economic slowdown and drought, while providing the necessary spurs to investment. The core structural issue in the economy is to improve farm incomes and shift the workforce out of farming into high productivity jobs in industry and services. The skilling challenge needs to be grappled with, by investing in education. The revival of MSMEs calls for attention. Farmers have been promised income support, but agri-marketing infrastructure leaves much to be desired. And the banking sector is in turmoil.

The Modi government began well in 2014 by taking a slew of steps to ease doing business. Its Digital India and Start Up India initiatives have opened up opportunities for the youth. Service delivery seems to have improved in urban India in particular, despite controversies over Aadhaar. It showed resolve by rolling out GST on the appointed date, July 1, 2016. The GST Council has worked well as a truly federal consultative body. The Centre must persist with the spirit of the bankruptcy code and ensure that capital is efficiently allocated, and undeserving managements shown the door. It has thorny issues to deal with on the trade front, with the US and China exerting pressure on tariffs, the latter through the RCEP. The US-China trade war as well as rising fuel prices would need to be carefully managed. A situation of low growth and high inflation should be avoided. The Centre should reassure investors that it remains committed to ‘minimum government, maximum governance’ — a resolve that seemed to weaken over time. The NBFC mess needs to be cleared, as it is emerging as a threat to growth. A level-playing field in sectors such as e-commerce will ensure investor interest. The BJP perhaps reaped the benefit of schemes such as PM KISAN, Ayushman Bharat, Swachh Bharat and Saubhagya. It should launch a scheme to deal with the water crisis.

Above all, the new government should eschew exercises in adventurism such as demonetisation. It should use its mandate to usher in inclusive growth with political, economic and institutional stability.

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