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Halfway through the BJP-led NDA’s second term in office, the Opposition stalwarts appear to have concluded that a Congress led by Rahul Gandhi, given his negligible political capital, cannot be the face of their challenge to Narendra Modi in the 2024 general elections. A leader with the political standing of Sharad Pawar stood at West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s side when she declared that the UPA did not exist anymore. Banerjee is right — an Opposition coalition which had Congress and the Left as its backbone is, indeed, a thing of the past. If the BJP is short on momentum, the forces which have gained in its stead are not the Congress, but regional parties — the TMC, NCP, DMK and SP. Clearly, the regional chieftains do not want to risk another walkover to the BJP as in 2014 and 2019, merely because of Rahul Gandhi’s failings. In questioning Gandhi’s credentials, the challengers have opened up the space for new coalition equations.

But even Banerjee and Pawar would know that they are, for now, punching above their weight on the national stage. Their parties, TMC and NCP, respectively, have just 4.1 per cent and 1.4 per cent of the national vote share; in contrast, the Congress even in its present state managed 19.67 per cent in 2019. The TMC has consolidated in the North East but it is practically non-existent in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Bihar where the Congress is a force to reckon with. Even in Uttar Pradesh, the Congress exists in the voters’ consciousness in a way that TMC and NCP do not. It appears the Mamata-Pawar plan is to expand their footprint so that they are able to bring down the Congress a notch or two in future alliance talks. Not to be forgotten in this positioning game is the Aam Aadmi Party. The results of the upcoming Assembly elections will influence these manoeuvres. While a ‘third front’ sans the Congress looks dead on arrival, regional parties would like to ensure that the Congress’ egregious ways do not impact the larger plan to take on the BJP in 2024.

Any such alliance should articulate a cohesive economic vision. This has so far been a blind spot for regional parties in particular. Whether it is farm reforms, privatisation, industrial policy, defence, external affairs, social sector or taxation, their considered views are barely known. While Pawar’s deep understanding of policy, reforms and governance is acknowledged, the same cannot be said for the other leaders. A new discourse — that goes beyond jockeying for power — must come into being.

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