Just as Russia launched an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine three years ago, Israel has attacked Iran, completely unprovoked. The Russian excuse was the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO. The Israeli excuse is Iran’s nuclear ambitions, though they are nowhere near fruition. There is an important difference, however: the US was against the aggressor in Ukraine and is supporting the aggressor in Iran. This makes absolutely no sense to the rest of the world which is watching helplessly as the Middle East stumbles along the path to a wider conflict.

Unlike Russia which is yet to gain the upper hand against Ukraine, Israel has already established complete air superiority over Iran; it has destroyed Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities except the Fordow underground facility, which is Iran’s most important; it has assassinated the top military and nuclear leadership and it has the full but non-vocalised backing of western governments. Another Islamic country with a nuclear weapon, after Pakistan, is the last thing the West wants. The war is now assuming dangerous proportions with both Iran and Israel now attacking civilian populations. The US cannot afford anymore to standby and watch; it should intervene and broker a ceasefire before more precious civilian lives are lost.

The usual playbook in the Middle East for the last 75 years has been what’s now politely called regime change. It’s a very long list. Starting with Mohammad Mossadegh in Iran in 1953 because he nationalised western oil companies to Bashar-al Assad of Syria in 2024, the story has been played repeatedly and relentlessly. Hence the question: is that the end game in Iran, too? Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has acknowledged that regime change could be the end result though it may not be the objective. The current Iranian Islamic regime is similar to the others and has very few sympathisers. Yet, there is no assurance that a new regime will either be friendly to the West or will agree to dismantle the nuclear programme. A new regime may well end up being more of the same. As for the nuclear programme, unless Israel finds a way to destroy the Fordow facility, its war objective will remain unfulfilled.

India, of course, is in a highly uncomfortable and vulnerable position. It has been on excellent terms with both Iran and Israel and needs both as friends. Iran is crucial to access to Central Asia and the International North-South Transportation Corridor, not to speak of Afghanistan. Trouble in Iran could also result in much higher oil prices; worse, if Iran chooses to block the Strait of Hormuz, not only will India’s oil supplies, which pass through the strait, be under threat but its exports to the West could also suffer. As for Israel, the security relationship between it and India is now very deep and the Jewish state is a crucial strategic ally. Clearly, India will have to do a careful balancing act.

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Published on June 17, 2025