With Donald Trump sworn in as the 47th President of the US, world capitals brace for an era of bold and disruptive leadership. His approach, marked by transactional diplomacy, economic protectionism, and an unpredictable demeanour, presents both challenges and opportunities for India. With the proposed visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the US, we must balance strategic pragmatism with firm negotiating stances, leveraging economic, geostrategic, defence, and diplomatic ties, anchored on individualistic negotiation style.

By carefully managing divergences and capitalizing on convergences, India can maximize geo-economic gains while mitigating risks associated with Trump’s leadership style.

Trump’s personality

Trump’s presidency operates under the ‘America First’ doctrine, prioritising US economic interests, trade deficits, and geostrategic outreach with enhanced sales of US defence armada. His leadership is bold, disruptive and naturally unconventional, often bypassing bureaucratic processes in favour of direct leader-to-leader diplomacy. He thrives on unpredictability as a negotiation tactic and is highly transactional, keeping both allies and adversaries on edge.

Nursing a feeling that the US is being used or exploited by others geo-economically, geo-strategically and geopolitically, Trump is vindictive and solicits greater economic gains even from strategic partners. His decision-making style is marked by a preference for swift action over institutional consensus, reshaping global diplomatic and economic dynamics.

Correspondingly, we can recalibrate our approach on trade, tariff, defence, and other geostrategic policies, on-boarding ‘America First’ policy with our Make-in-India policy. Consequently, Trump’s transactional mindset requires India to engage with targeted strategies that satisfy his short-term objectives while ensuring long-term benefits. Moreover, he emphasises redefined alliances, favouring bilateral deals over multilateral commitments, creating room for India to secure favourable trade agreements and strategic defence collaborations, provided it fits with his personal cues and tough stance.

Recounting how Trump’s relentless focus on trade deficits led India to lose the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) status in 2019, impacting $6 billion worth of duty-free exports, we can adopt a measured response to his spontaneous overtures on BRICS currency, tariffs, illegal migration and enhanced market access. India strategically avoided a full-fledged trade war with US under Trump 1.0 and pushed a ‘mini-trade deal’ by granting selective market access in energy, retail, defence and agriculture while simultaneously safeguarding India’s economic interest in key sectors like pharmaceuticals, e-commerce, and digital services.

We must argue win-win in India-US relationship, soliciting revival of a mini-trade deal along with nuanced energy and defence diplomacy to counterbalance trade deficits. While scaling and synergising India-US economic relations, let us leverage individualistic bargains, thus keeping our economic relations in the evolving global order completely cushioned.

Correspondingly, while increasing our energy trade with the US, let us be cautious of our evolving relations with trusted and proven trade partners. Such an approach will not only address US trade imbalances but also strengthen India’s bargaining position in future economic engagements.

Geostrategy in defence

India’s defence procurements under Trump 1.0 were centred on boosting bilateral relations through arms deals, particularly with an emphasis on enhancing India’s defence capabilities. This included defence purchases under a packaged deal (Seahawk, Apache, Chinook helicopter, Posedion, Globemaster aircraft, etc.) which Trump loved, while spontaneously strengthening India’s geostrategic outreach with three defence cooperation agreements, namely LEMOA, COMCASA and BECA.

Let us scale this to sectors such as critical minerals, extending maritime zones, exploring the blue economy and deep-sea resources, space and digital trade economy. While addressing concerns on illegal migration, we must accentuate the role of Indian Americans in the economic and geostrategic destiny of today’s America. Leaving aside Trump’s plan on greater America, we can emphasise how the US can economically gain in defence exports to India, capitalising on our shared stance on counterbalancing China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region. The approach fits well with his transactional style, with a focus on economic and geopolitical advantages for both parties.

Soliciting US strong support on Quad, we can pursue ‘Indo-Pacific’ strategy. Moreover, we must explore common ground on tech war(s), free and open shipping lanes, and a war and sanctions free world where respect for human values is supreme, syncing well with Trump’s stand on Gaza, Russia-Ukraine conflict, and an inclusive financial and security architecture.

A blend of economic-pragmatism, defence-cooperation, and personal-diplomacy are key. Nuclear cooperation, double standards on terrorism, separatists’ movements in India, and human rights issues are important.

Ram is Professor & Head, and Tuheena is AP (OB/HRM), IIFT New Delhi. Views are personal

Published on February 4, 2025