Crude oil prices surged considerably last week. Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) ($74.20/barrel) gained 11.7 per cent and the crude oil futures on the MCX (₹6,161/barrel) was up 12.6 per cent.

Brent futures ($74.20)

Brent crude oil futures went past resistances at $68, $70 and $75 last week and marked a five-month high of $78.50 on Friday. But it saw some moderation and closed the week at $74.20.

Note that the price band of $80-82 is a resistance. If the current uptrend lifts the contract above $82, it can extend the rally to $90. Subsequent resistance is at $95.

In case there is a drop in price, the contract can find support at $70 and $68.

Overall, the next move could be a minor correction to $70, and then Brent futures can resume the rally, which can potentially take it to $82.

MCX-Crude oil (₹6,161)

Crude oil futures (Jul) saw a strong rally last week, and hit a high of ₹6,311 on Friday. After the initial uptick, the contract softened through the session and closed at ₹6,161.

A close above ₹6,000 is a bullish sign and keeps the probability of further rally high. But note that outstanding open interest dropped on Friday to 5,623 contracts compared to 6,782 contracts on Thursday, despite a substantial price gain.

So, there is an indication that traders booked profits at higher levels. This might continue, which can drag the price lower. But it can be limited to either ₹6,000 or ₹5,800. 

A resumption in the rally can lift crude oil futures to ₹7,000, a barrier. 

Trade strategy: Buy crude oil futures (Jun) at ₹5,800. Target and stop-loss can be ₹6,800 and ₹5,600 respectively.

Published on June 14, 2025