Preciousmetals. Gold, silver regain sheen in March

After a few months of inaction, precious metals regained their sheen in March.

COMEX gold price soared to new, all-time highs and silver, too, managed to log handsome gains in March. Expectations of an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve played a key role in bolstering the sentiment towards precious metals.

Biggest monthly gain

COMEX gold posted its biggest monthly gain since November 2022. The yellow metal gained 9.8 per cent in March to settle at $2,254.8 an ounce. A similar trend was seen in COMEX silver as well. The white metal closed 9.7 per cent higher to settle at $25.1 an ounce.

Mirroring the trend in the global markets, MCX gold closed 7.57 per cent higher in March and closed at ₹67,725 per 10-gram. MCX silver closed 5.3 per cent higher at ₹75,044 per kilogram.

Decisive breakout

COMEX gold managed to stage a decisive breakout from the $2,000-2,100 range that it was confined to, in the past few months. As anticipated, the breakout resulted in a sharp move to the upside and pushed the gold price way beyond the then projected target zone of $2,150-$2,160 zone.

The short-term outlook for gold is positive and COMEX gold could head to the next target zone at $2,295-2,320 zone. The positive outlook would be invalidated if the price were to decline below $2,150.

Unlike gold, COMEX silver is yet to breakout of the $21.9-$26.4 range that the price has been confined to for several months now.

Range-bound, volatile

As observed last month, only a breakout from this range would trigger the next big move.

Until then expect silver price to remain range-bound and volatile. A move past $26.5 would impart momentum to the upside and could help the price of silver spike to the $28.5-29 zone.

Mirroring the global trend, MCX gold too completed a breakout of the prior price range. The breakout imparted momentum to the upside and the price moved well beyond the then-mentioned target zone of ₹65,500-66,000.

Short-term outlook

The short-term outlook is positive and gold price could head to the next target of ₹69,200-69,800.

A fall below ₹65,500 would invalidate this positive outlook.

MCX silver price, too, completed its breakout and the price hit the target zone of ₹76,500-₹77,500 mentioned last month. The short-term trend is positive and MCX silver could head to the next target zone at ₹78,200-78,600. The positive view would be under threat if the price drops below ₹70,500.

Positive outlook

To summarise, the short-term outlook for both gold and silver is positive and would remain so until the levels mentioned above are not breached.

While COMEX gold managed to register a range breakout, COMEX silver is yet to do so.

A breakout above the upper end of the range would trigger momentum to the upside in silver.

(The author is a Chennai-based analyst/trader. The views and opinion featured in this column is based on the analysis of short-term price movement in gold and silver futures at COMEX & Multi Commodity Exchange of India. This is not meant to be a trading or investment advice)

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