Technical Analysis

Your stock portfolio

Yoganand D | Updated on March 23, 2014 Published on March 23, 2014

24Colgate-Palmo.eps

24HUL.eps

24L & T.eps



Request technical outlook (one year-plus) for Hindustan Unilever and Colgate-Palmolive.

Panini Deshpande

Hindustan Unilever (₹572.6): Ever since bottoming out from the 2004 low of ₹104, Hindustan Unilever has been on a long-term uptrend forming higher peaks and troughs. This long-term uptrend will stay in place as long as the stock trades above ₹400-410 base zone. It has the possibility of reaching the target of ₹650 and ₹725 in the long-term.

Medium-term trend has been down since registering a new peak at ₹725 in August 2013. The stock’s key long-term support at ₹550 provided the base by arresting its downtrend this January and again in early March.

The stock is attempting to reverse higher from this support. A rally above the immediate resistance level at ₹600 will pave way for an up move to ₹650 in the medium-term. Key supports to watch are positioned at ₹550 and ₹515. The short-term trend is sideways between ₹550 and ₹600.

Colgate-Palmolive India (₹1,345.7): Colgate-Palmolive too is in a long-term uptrend, rising almost four-fold from its 2008 levels to the 2013 peak at ₹1,580. However, since then the stock has been very volatile.

The long-term uptrend will be in motion as long as the stock trades above the significant range of ₹960 and ₹1,000. An emphatic move above ₹1,400 will strengthen the uptrend and take the stock northwards to ₹1,500 or even to ₹1,580 in the long-term. Key long-term supports to keep note of are at ₹1,200 and then at ₹1,100 levels. The stock has been on a modest uptrend from the last August low of ₹1,190. But now the stock is testing resistance at ₹1,365. A break past this hurdle will push the stock higher to ₹1,400 initially and ₹1,450 in the medium-term. Immediate supports are at ₹1,300, ₹1,250 and ₹1,200.

Kindly review the long-term outlook on the stocks of L&T and GSK Pharma.

Pandurang

Larsen & Toubro (₹1,219.5): When L&T decisively broke through its key resistance at ₹1,150 in early March, its long-term trend has turned bullish from sideways. Investors with a long-term perspective can consider holding the stock with a stop-loss at ₹950. The long as well as medium-term outlook is bullish. The stock can trend to ₹1,300 in the medium-term. Strong move above ₹1,300 can accelerate the stock to ₹1,400 and ₹1,450 in the long-term.

The stock is currently testing a key resistance at ₹1,250. A breach of this can take the stock to ₹1,300 in the short- to medium-term. On the other hand, a fall below ₹1,100 will pose a threat to the short-term uptrend and the stock can decline to ₹1,030 and to ₹1,000 in the medium-term.

Direct supports are at ₹1,200 and ₹1150.

GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals (₹2,592.3): Since 2008, the stock has been on a long-term uptrend. It encountered resistance at ₹3,050 in February and has plunged 15 per cent so for this month, raising questions about the sustainability of the uptrend. However, investors with a long-term horizon can hold the stock with a stop-loss at ₹1,900.

An upward reversal from the significant support at ₹2,300 can take the stock higher to ₹2,700 or ₹2,800 in the long-term. But the short-term trend is down for the stock. A fall below ₹2,450 will reinforce bearish momentum and pull the stock down to ₹2,350 or ₹2,300.

Traders with short-term perspective should go long only if the stock advances above ₹2,650 levels, for a target of ₹2,800.

I purchased shares of NTPC at ₹135. Please let me know the prospects.

N Raman

NTPC (₹114.4): The stock has been on a long-term downtrend from its January 2010 peak at ₹239, shaping lower peaks and troughs. Medium- as well as short-term trends are down for the NTPC. Last month, the stock tumbled breaking its significant support at ₹130 that was providing base for the stock for almost two months.

The stock is trading well below its 50- and 200-day moving averages. Nevertheless, the stock is trading above a key long-term support at ₹100. You can hold the stock with a stop-loss at ₹95.

A decisive fall below ₹100 will drag the stock down to ₹80 in the long-term. On the other hand, the stock needs to rally above ₹135 to alter the short term downtrend and take it upwards to ₹147 or ₹160 in the medium-term.

Published on March 23, 2014
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