The prices of aluminium gained last week — the December contract of aluminium on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) rebounded from the support at ₹205. Currently trading at around ₹216, the contract has now made a higher high on the daily chart.
However, it should be noted that the contract has a considerable hurdle at ₹220. So, until this level is decisively breached, the bulls might struggle to get an upper hand. That said, on the downside, the contract has a strong support at ₹205.
If the aluminium futures manage to get over the hurdle at ₹220, we can expect a swift rally to ₹250, a resistance level. Immediately above this i.e., at ₹256, lies the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement level of the prior downtrend. Therefore, the price region of ₹250-256 is a resistance band.
Trade strategy
Stay on the sidelines for now and go long on aluminium futures if the price goes above ₹220. Place initial stop-loss at ₹208.
On a rally past ₹230, revise the stop-loss to ₹220. When the contract rallies past ₹240, tighten the stop-loss further to ₹234. Exit the longs at ₹250.
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