Commodity Calls

MCX-Zinc trades above a support band

Akhil Nallamuthu BL Research Bureau | Updated on January 23, 2020

The spot price of Zinc on the MCX, after breaching the key resistance at ₹184 last week, could not rally beyond ₹190 in early January. The price looks to be fluctuating within ₹184 and ₹190 and unless it moves out of the price band, it cannot be expected to trend in either direction.

The January mini futures contract of Zinc on the MCX has been fluctuating in the band between ₹180 and ₹185 for past two weeks. The resistance at ₹185 is coincided by 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement level. The contract can be expected to confirm a trend only if it breaks either of the mentioned levels. The 21- and the 50-day moving averages have been contracting towards each other, and the contract has been traversing across both the averages.

The MACD indicator on the daily chart exhibit a positive bias as it traces an upward trajectory. However, the RSI stays flat following the sideways trend of the contract.

If the contract gains bullish momentum and breaks out of ₹185, it can rise to ₹190. Beyond that, the resistance is at ₹195. On the other hand, if the contract slumps below ₹180, it will find an immediate support at ₹178. Hence, the price band between ₹178 and ₹180 is an important subpport band.

The three-month rolling forward contract of Zinc on the LME has been on an uptrend and the contract continues to register higher peaks — a bullish indication. It has rallied past the key level at $2,400 and seems to be retesting that level. On the upside, the contract might advance towards $2,500 in coming days.

Trading strategy

Since the futures contract on the MCX has a support band and LME prices indicate a possible rally, the outlook seems to be positive. Hence, despite sideways trend, traders can initiate fresh long positions with a stop-loss at ₹176.

Published on January 24, 2020

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